# Will ICEMAN, MAID OF HONOUR, AND HABIBTI by Drake have above 1750000 combined Album Equivalent Units during the May 15, 2026 - May 21, 2026 tracking week

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/icemanalbums
Updated: 2026-05-24T19:20:14.228Z
Category: entertainment
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Leader: Above 725K at 82%
- Runner-up: Above 750K at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $22K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 725K | 82¢ | +10pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-iceman-maid-of-honour-and-habibti-by-drake-ha-kalshi-kxicemanalbums-ice26may21-725.0k |
| Above 750K | 4¢ | −6pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-iceman-maid-of-honour-and-habibti-by-drake-ha-kalshi-kxicemanalbums-ice26may21-750.0k |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 725K | Above 750K |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | — | 58 |
| 2026-05-21 | 54 | 13 |
| 2026-05-22 | 54 | 9 |
| 2026-05-23 | 64 | 3 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · Above 750K −10pp 23→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Above 725K +10pp 54→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Above 750K −6pp 9→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Above 750K −4pp 13→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This tracks whether Drake's three-song bundle will accumulate more than 1.75 million Album Equivalent Units during the May 15–21, 2026 tracking week. At 3 cents on Kalshi, the market assigns roughly 3% probability to this outcome. The steep decline from 79% at the 500K threshold to 3% at 1.75M reflects skepticism about sustained streaming volume at higher tiers. Drake's catalog reach and existing fanbase support moderate consumption (500–750K appears likely), but reaching superstar single-week peaks requires exceptional streaming concentration, chart dominance, or unexpected viral momentum. Official chart data releases on May 28–29, 2026 will definitively resolve this contract. Market liquidity is minimal ($2 daily volume), suggesting limited active trading around this specific threshold.

### Key factors

- Drake's historical weekly AEU peaks and whether this three-track bundle has demonstrated comparable appeal to his recent solo singles
- Streaming platform concentration: whether listeners are heavily cycling these three tracks versus distributing plays across Drake's broader catalog
- Chart performance and playlist placement during the May 15–21 week, particularly on Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube
- Competing releases and overall market saturation during this tracking week that would fragment listener attention
- Official Billboard/chart methodology confirmation of which streaming counts apply to this specific bundle versus individual track tracking

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/icemanalbums
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=icemanalbums

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.