# Will legislation that transfers Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) out of ICE to establish it as a separate entity within the Department of Homeland Security become law in 2026

> Mask ban leads at 8%, runner-up 8% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/icereform
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:10.648Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Mask ban at 8%
- Runner-up: Separate HSI from ICE at 8%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mask ban | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-prohibits-ice-agents-conduct-kalshi-kxicereform-mask |
| Separate HSI from ICE | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-transfers-homeland-security-kalshi-kxicereform-hsi |
| QR-code identification | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-ice-and-cbp-personn-kalshi-kxicereform-qr |
| Visible identification | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-immigration-enforce-kalshi-kxicereform-id |
| Mandatory body-worn cameras | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-ice-and-cbp-personn-kalshi-kxicereform-cam |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mask ban | Separate HSI from ICE | QR-code identification |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 8 | 5 |
| 2026-05-10 | 9 | — | 5 |
| 2026-05-11 | — | — | 7 |
| 2026-05-12 | — | — | 8 |
| 2026-05-13 | 8 | — | — |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 8 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | — | 8 | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Mandatory body-worn cameras −4pp 8→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction reflects market expectation that Congress will pass legislation separating Homeland Security Investigations from Immigration and Customs Enforcement into its own DHS entity by the end of 2026. The 85% probability suggests traders view such restructuring as likely given current political dynamics, though Congress must act within the compressed 2026 timeline. The main drivers are whether HSI separation gains bipartisan support—supported by those viewing it as modernizing federal law enforcement—and whether other immigration-related legislation takes priority in congressional bandwidth. The critical catalyst is the remainder of the 2026 legislative calendar; absent action by summer recess or during the post-recess session, the probability of year-end passage would decline substantially. Market pricing likely reflects recent legislative proposals or statements signaling readiness to advance this reform, though the substantial gap between this 85% and related immigration bills priced at 54% suggests uncertainty about sequencing and political capital allocation among competing DHS priorities.

### Key factors

- Actual legislative text or formal bill introduction with co-sponsor count tracking support across both chambers
- Congressional floor scheduling decisions during 2026 calendar—whether leadership designates time for HSI separation debate before August or September
- Comparative momentum of competing immigration/DHS legislation (ICE ERO funding, visa reforms) that may compete for legislative time
- Public statements from relevant committee chairs (Judiciary, Homeland Security) indicating timeline for HSI separation consideration
- Market price discrepancy between HSI separation (85%) and closely-related ICE funding (54%) suggesting traders differentiate legislative probability by perceived difficulty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/icereform
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=icereform

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.