# Who will win the 2026 Idaho Official State Gun advisory vote

> Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) leads at 45%, runner-up 25% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/idhb932
Updated: 2026-08-24T22:20:52.468Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) at 45%
- Runner-up: 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt) at 25%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $25

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) | 45¢ | +11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-idaho-official-state-gun-adv-kalshi-kxidhb932-26-w1873 |
| 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt) | 25¢ | +4pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-idaho-official-state-gun-adv-kalshi-kxidhb932-26-colt |
| M1 Garand rifle (.30-06) | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-idaho-official-state-gun-adv-kalshi-kxidhb932-26-m1ga |
| Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP) | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-idaho-official-state-gun-adv-kalshi-kxidhb932-26-m1911 |
| Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-idaho-official-state-gun-adv-kalshi-kxidhb932-26-w1894 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) | 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt) | M1 Garand rifle (.30-06) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | 39 | 7 | 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | 46 | 20 | 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — | 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | 8 | 13 | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 17 | 14 | 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | 31 | 18 | 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | 42 | — | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-19 · Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) −38pp 46→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) +14pp 17→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) +11pp 31→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Colt M1911 .45 automatic Colt pistol (.45 ACP) −10pp 12→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver (.45 Colt) −5pp 18→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Idaho is holding an advisory vote in 2026 to designate an official state gun. The Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) is currently the leading candidate at 43% probability, with the 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver at 22%. The vote reflects broader preferences among Idaho voters and interest groups regarding which historic firearm best represents the state. The outcome depends on voter turnout, regional preferences within Idaho, and the strength of advocacy campaigns by competing firearm communities. The advisory vote itself will settle the question, though actual designation may require legislative action. Trading volume remains moderate across contracts, with the Winchester Model 1873 showing the strongest trading interest at $397 in 24-hour volume.

### Key factors

- Winchester Model 1873 commands a 21-point lead over the second-place Colt revolver, suggesting either stronger regional support or more effective advocacy
- The top two candidates together account for 65% implied probability, leaving 35% distributed across four other options including the M1 Garand and M1911
- Idaho's historic association with frontier settlement and ranching may favor older western-era firearms like the Winchester and Colt models over 20th-century military designs
- Trading volume concentration in the Winchester contract ($397) versus minimal volume in the M1911 contract ($15) suggests differential confidence or information asymmetry
- An advisory vote requires voter participation and turnout dynamics that could shift probabilities if specific demographic groups mobilize or disengage

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/idhb932
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=idhb932

## License

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