# Will Sweden win the IIHF World Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 4 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iihf
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.513Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 53¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-win-the-iihf-world-championship-canada-kalshi-kxiihf-26-can |
| Switzerland | 24¢ | +2pp | $767 | kalshi | /markets/will-switzerland-win-the-iihf-world-championship-s-kalshi-kxiihf-26-sui |
| Sweden | 4¢ | ±0 | $713 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-win-the-iihf-world-championship-sweden-kalshi-kxiihf-26-swe |
| Finland | 21¢ | −3pp | $497 | kalshi | /markets/will-finland-win-the-iihf-world-championship-finla-kalshi-kxiihf-26-fin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | 15 |
| 2026-05-21 | 9 |
| 2026-05-28 | 34 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Canada −18pp 55→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Canada −11pp 49→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Finland +9pp 6→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Canada +8pp 37→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Finland −5pp 11→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Sweden is priced at a 13% chance to win the 2026 IIHF World Championship, meaning markets assess roughly a one-in-eight probability of a Swedish victory. This reflects Sweden's status as a traditional hockey power, though not among the top favorites—Canada leads at 44%, with the USA, Finland, and Switzerland also in contention. The probability depends primarily on Sweden's roster composition, recent performance trends heading into the tournament, and how their players perform in early-round matches. The championship itself, scheduled for spring 2026, will determine the outcome; Sweden's performance in qualifying rounds and group play will be the immediate catalyst for repricing this contract. Current low trading volume suggests limited recent activity among traders reassessing Swedish chances.

### Key factors

- Sweden's historical Olympic and World Championship medal performance and current roster strength compared to Canada, USA, and other top programs
- Recent head-to-head results between Sweden and leading contenders in the 12-24 months preceding the tournament
- Injury status and availability of key Swedish players during the tournament window
- Sweden's placement and group composition in the tournament draw and strength of schedule in early rounds
- The gap between Canada (44¢) and Sweden (13¢) suggests markets view Sweden as a clear contender but not among the top three favorites

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iihf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iihf

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.