# IK Start vs. Tromsø IL - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ik-start-vs-troms-il-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-06T06:35:47.035Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $906

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +9pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 19¢ | −20pp | $24 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0xf8c9058bc3f1c77e39ed03a30a3df9c41a377d75a71ad86ff20ff5167bf086be |
| Punjab FC (-1.5) | 39¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/punjab-fc-vs-chennaiyin-fc-more-markets-punjab-fc-polymarket-0xea81e11adacd16d06cc52afd8e83cd1864dc58b62135f7e7931fbb9b70da2c80 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |
| 2026-05-06 | 38 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 3.5 −20pp 40→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Punjab FC (-1.5) −3pp 37→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 39% probability that IK Start will score more than their opponents in a match against Tromsø IL. The probability sits below even odds, suggesting bookmakers or traders view Tromsø as slight favorites or expect a lower-scoring game. Key factors affecting this probability include each team's recent goal-scoring form, their relative strength in the Norwegian football league, and any injuries or tactical adjustments heading into the match. The resolution will depend on the actual match outcome, which determines whether Start outscores Tromsø. Shifts in this probability would likely follow team news, changes in betting activity across other markets, or updated information about player availability affecting either side's offensive capability.

### Key factors

- IK Start's recent goals-for and goals-against statistics compared to Tromsø IL in league play
- Tromsø IL's home or away status and historical performance in similar matchups
- Available player rosters for both teams, particularly injuries to key forwards or defensive players
- The implied odds comparison between this market and other major sportsbooks for the same fixture
- Trading volume and price movement patterns on related markets like total goals or exact scoreline predictions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ik-start-vs-troms-il-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ik-start-vs-troms-il-more-markets

## License

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