# Will Illinois utility-scale net electricity generation from nuclear energy for 2026 be above 92.5 TWh

> Above 87.5 TWh leads at 96%, runner-up 95% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ilnuclear
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.711Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Above 87.5 TWh at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 90.0 TWh at 95%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 87.5 TWh | 96¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-utility-scale-net-electricity-genera-kalshi-kxilnuclear-27feb28-t87.5 |
| Above 90.0 TWh | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-utility-scale-net-electricity-genera-kalshi-kxilnuclear-27feb28-t90.0 |
| Above 92.5 TWh | 92¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-utility-scale-net-electricity-genera-kalshi-kxilnuclear-27feb28-t92.5 |
| Above 95.0 TWh | 84¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-utility-scale-net-electricity-genera-kalshi-kxilnuclear-27feb28-t95.0 |
| Above 97.5 TWh | 37¢ | +7pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-utility-scale-net-electricity-genera-kalshi-kxilnuclear-27feb28-t97.5 |
| Above 100.0 TWh | 8¢ | −2pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-utility-scale-net-electricity-genera-kalshi-kxilnuclear-27feb28-t100.0 |
| Above 102.5 TWh | 4¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-illinois-utility-scale-net-electricity-genera-kalshi-kxilnuclear-27feb28-t102.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 87.5 TWh | Above 90.0 TWh | Above 92.5 TWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | 73 |
| 2026-08-20 | — | — | 82 |
| 2026-08-22 | 96 | 92 | 92 |
| 2026-08-23 | — | — | 92 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Above 97.5 TWh +14pp 22→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 95.0 TWh +11pp 61→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 92.5 TWh +10pp 82→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 97.5 TWh −9pp 36→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 95.0 TWh +9pp 72→81¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether Illinois will generate more than 92.5 terawatt-hours of net electricity from nuclear sources in 2026. At 79% probability, traders assess this outcome as likely but not certain. Illinois nuclear output depends primarily on reactor availability and capacity factors at its operating plants—mainly Exelon's Byron and Dresden stations, plus potential contributions from other facilities. The significant gap between the 79% price (above 92.5 TWh) and the 59% price (above 95.0 TWh) suggests market uncertainty about whether output will land in the high-80s or exceed 95 TWh. Since we are in mid-August 2026, actual generation data for most of the year is already known or nearly finalized, meaning the uncertainty likely centers on final Q4 production figures and any late-year maintenance or operational issues. The outcome will be determined by published utility generation statistics, typically released by sources like the Energy Information Administration or state regulators in early 2027.

### Key factors

- Illinois reactor fleet capacity factor and planned/unplanned maintenance schedules during 2026, particularly Byron and Dresden stations which represent majority of state nuclear output
- Actual monthly generation data released through December 2026 showing trajectory toward or away from 92.5 TWh threshold
- Operational status of any additional reactors or uprates that may have come online or modified output during the year
- Comparison of Illinois nuclear output against prior-year baselines (2024-2025 generation levels) to assess trend direction
- EIA or regulatory agency publication of final 2026 annual nuclear generation statistics, typically released in Q1 2027, which will be the definitive resolution source

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ilnuclear
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ilnuclear

## License

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