# Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment

> the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment leads at 66%, runner-up 61% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/impeachcabinet
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.026Z
Category: politics · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment at 66%
- Runner-up: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment at 61%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $28

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment | 66¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-member-of-the-cabinet-defined-as-the-vice-kalshi-kximpeachcabinet-29jan20 |
| the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment | 61¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-member-of-the-cabinet-defined-as-the-vice-kalshi-kximpeachcabinet-28jan01 |
| the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment | 5¢ | −1pp | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-member-of-the-cabinet-defined-as-the-vice-kalshi-kximpeachcabinet-27jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment | the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment | the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 64 | 53 | — |
| 2026-05-30 | 64 | 52 | 8 |
| 2026-06-10 | — | 62 | 6 |
| 2026-06-12 | 65 | 61 | — |
| 2026-06-19 | — | — | 5 |
| 2026-06-21 | 67 | — | 5 |
| 2026-06-25 | 66 | — | 5 |
| 2026-06-26 | 65 | — | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether any member of the presidential Cabinet will face impeachment by January 29, 2027. The 65% probability reflects market expectations that at least one of the 17 Cabinet positions will result in impeachment proceedings during this 8-month period. The current political environment, ongoing investigations, and legislative composition influence this baseline. Factors driving the probability include partisan dynamics in Congress, which determines both the likelihood of impeachment votes and their success, as well as individual Cabinet members' actions or controversies that could trigger such proceedings. The outcome will be determined by whether the House of Representatives votes to impeach any Cabinet member before the contract expires, regardless of Senate conviction.

### Key factors

- Current House composition and partisan breakdown affects both impeachment likelihood and threshold for proceedings
- Number and severity of ongoing investigations or controversies involving specific Cabinet members
- Historical frequency of Cabinet impeachments (very rare in U.S. history, with only one Cabinet member impeached in the past 150 years)
- Political incentives for the majority party to use impeachment as a tool, which vary significantly by congressional control
- Any major scandal, misconduct allegations, or legal issues involving Cabinet officials between now and January 29, 2027

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/impeachcabinet
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=impeachcabinet
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## License

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