# Incheon Mayoral Election Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/incheon-mayoral-election-winner
Updated: 2026-06-05T07:20:12.382Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-03

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $16K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoo Jeong-bok | 3¢ | −1pp | $16K | polymarket | /markets/incheon-mayoral-election-winner-yoo-jeong-bok-polymarket-0x45d06878c8e37b634909a2216e1d765f88e7f6f3a0cdb7d2c86984543a0ba2cb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 5 |
| 2026-05-27 | 5 |
| 2026-06-01 | 2 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 94% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Chong Won-oh will win the Incheon mayoral election. The high confidence appears driven by polling data, candidate positioning, or recent political momentum favoring Chong, while the remaining 6% uncertainty accounts for potential shifts in voter preference, undecided voters breaking toward the alternative candidate, or unexpected campaign developments. The election date itself will definitively resolve this contract, with results providing clear evidence of the winner. Market prices could shift if new polls release, major campaign events occur, or if voting day approaches with tightening race dynamics.

### Key factors

- Current market price of 88¢ for Chong Won-oh implies approximately 88% probability based on Polymarket pricing
- The 12-point gap between top candidates suggests meaningful separation in market expectations rather than a competitive race
- Trading volume indicates moderate liquidity ($15,458 in 24h volume for Seoul mayoral contracts), affecting price stability
- The contract will resolve on or shortly after the scheduled Incheon mayoral election date with official government results
- Any major campaign announcement, scandal, or shift in voter polling between now and election day could move the probability significantly

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/incheon-mayoral-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=incheon-mayoral-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.