# Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets: CR Flamengo (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 57 min ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-cr
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:29.124Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-08

## Headline

- Leader: CR Flamengo (-1.5) at 26%
- Runner-up: CR Flamengo (-2.5) at 10%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $879

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CR Flamengo (-1.5) | 26¢ | +3pp | $805 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0x7a9c39e0a0f9c9db46a9c5211ed75953ed67adfa9e22889d0ace5ae29b6226fb |
| CR Flamengo (-2.5) | 10¢ | +20pp | $74 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0x75e2aa16429857d90c569465fb03868bdf7292bdedf454f84cbf338b527aaf0f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | CR Flamengo (-1.5) | CR Flamengo (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 25 | 10 |
| 2026-05-07 | 27 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | 70 | 67 |
| 2026-05-09 | 73 | 87 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · CR Flamengo (-2.5) +56pp 11→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · CR Flamengo (-1.5) +43pp 27→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · CR Flamengo (-2.5) +20pp 67→87¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · CR Flamengo (-1.5) +3pp 70→73¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's expectation that CR Flamengo will win by fewer than 1.5 goals against Independiente Medellín. At 19%, this indicates relatively low confidence in a narrow Flamengo victory, suggesting traders expect either a Medellín win, a draw, or a larger Flamengo margin. The low probability likely reflects Medellín's home-field advantage and recent form, while Flamengo's inconsistency away from home weighs against the spread. The outcome will be determined by the match itself on the scheduled date, where final team lineups, weather conditions, and tactical adjustments will resolve this market. Recent performance trends, head-to-head records, and injury status closer to kickoff typically shift these probabilities materially.

### Key factors

- Independiente Medellín plays at altitude in Medellín, a significant advantage historically; away teams often struggle with both the elevation and crowd support
- CR Flamengo's recent away-match win-rate and goal-differential compared to their home performance; poor road records typically suppress spread probabilities
- Relative squad quality and current form entering the match; injuries to key attacking or defensive players can shift expected margins by 0.5–1.5 goals
- Historical head-to-head goal margins in competitive matches between these teams; if typical outcomes favor larger winning margins, a -1.5 spread will remain underpriced
- Market volume and participation; with zero 24-hour volume on both contracts, the 19% price may reflect thin liquidity rather than confident consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-cr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-cr

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