# Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 71%, runner-up 49% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:05:38.452Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-08

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 71%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 49%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 71¢ | +3pp | $388 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0xc81cbc65f28bf66114878cca7778d0235d5755f2825e948a28daa804ff637940 |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | −23pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0x984c9ad2f76da84f8ecd26823ff6ef61c0d90393aa5db76980dfdb32c38e90c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 46¢ | +10pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0x8ad741befff2939b3cf4c2ba912e3cab361b5519c14a49cd8ce97cbced01e675 |
| CR Flamengo (-1.5) | 26¢ | +3pp | $805 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0x7a9c39e0a0f9c9db46a9c5211ed75953ed67adfa9e22889d0ace5ae29b6226fb |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −6pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0x54b0e1b520ff8ee21944cae593cf8dafc66156b194b342a8aaa15108d00a1ec9 |
| O/U 4.5 | 11¢ | −6pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0x05e192fab6d093f2804199240c9020bc13f945f3a4c69956583805d7d2a6595f |
| CR Flamengo (-2.5) | 10¢ | +20pp | $74 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0x75e2aa16429857d90c569465fb03868bdf7292bdedf454f84cbf338b527aaf0f |
| Independiente Medellín (-1.5) | 7¢ | +1pp | $388 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0x99ff9952e2a6be0809664dedf678d8d8632883981c26ed95f7f6297c3cd55d84 |
| Independiente Medellín (-2.5) | 3¢ | −2pp | $13 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets-polymarket-0x33f5ff5bb24b4a825f35d2bbbd83d0e5db54ea4e475b39093d64d88d582ba322 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 69 | 47 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 71 | 47 | 45 |
| 2026-05-08 | 75 | 29 | 67 |
| 2026-05-09 | 78 | 6 | 77 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · CR Flamengo (-2.5) +56pp 11→67¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · CR Flamengo (-1.5) +43pp 27→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Independiente Medellín (-2.5) +24pp 4→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Both Teams to Score −23pp 29→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · O/U 2.5 +22pp 45→67¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 71% probability indicates that the market leader expects Independiente Medellín to win their match against CR Flamengo, though with meaningful uncertainty remaining. The probability reflects Flamengo's status as a established Brazilian club against a Colombian side, balanced against Medellín's home-field advantage and current form. The contract pricing diverges notably from the 49% runner-up position, suggesting significant disagreement about the likely outcome. Key factors driving this assessment include relative team strength in continental competition, recent performance metrics, and the specific match conditions. Resolution will occur when the match is played—the scheduled fixture date will determine whether Medellín secures victory or the outcome follows an alternative result.

### Key factors

- Flamengo's historical performance in Copa Libertadores and recent league standings versus Medellín's domestic form and home record
- Head-to-head historical results and goal differential in previous meetings between these clubs
- Injury status and squad availability for both teams leading up to match day
- Current league position and momentum of each club in their respective domestic competitions
- Venue factors and weather conditions that may favor one team's playing style

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-more-markets

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