# Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo

> CR Flamengo leads at 46%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:52.467Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-08

## Headline

- Leader: CR Flamengo at 46%
- Runner-up: Draw (Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo) at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CR Flamengo | 46¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-cr-flamengo-polymarket-0x8bc1be0895dddefad2099032d9255abc968496aa60c57a22b2a420d4f09bb408 |
| Draw (Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-draw-independ-polymarket-0x072fcc10b78a87fb7d5030adf5db04c11c77840071f80dc26b93f7b750071671 |
| Independiente Medellín | 27¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo-independiente-polymarket-0xd1068fa863575b92e0d8a9e1bb94b6eda550cc66b874ef1dd17b0021219b937b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | CR Flamengo | Independiente Medellín |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 46 | 27 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 30% probability reflects how often traders expect Independiente Medellín and CR Flamengo to finish level in their upcoming match. The market is pricing a draw as the single most likely outcome, ahead of a Flamengo win at 26% and Medellín victory at approximately 44%. The probability is shaped by recent form, head-to-head history, and current squad availability. Factors that would shift this include late-stage injury announcements to either team's key players, weather conditions on match day, or tactical adjustments made in pre-match preparation. The match resolution will occur when the final whistle blows, making the exact date and venue critical for contract settlement. Until then, traders are balancing offensive capabilities against defensive stability for both squads, with the relatively low trading volume suggesting limited confidence in the current price level.

### Key factors

- Current squad injury status for both Medellín and Flamengo, particularly in defensive or attacking positions
- Recent form record and goal-scoring differential for each team over their last 5-10 matches
- Head-to-head historical record and average goals per match between these specific opponents
- Match venue and surface conditions, which can favor possession-based or counter-attacking play styles
- Pre-match betting line movement from traditional sportsbooks, which may reflect sharp money positioning ahead of kickoff

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=independiente-medelln-vs-cr-flamengo

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.