# Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-more
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 60%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 42%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 60¢ | −17pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x5735da3e7d2a090ad05c030f77efb55ebc2288982ec45be75358f0e57d648821 |
| Both Teams to Score | 42¢ | −13pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x13712fed686d2b8c9fb4a3cfb1024a67967a412094efa5871638bff56c6025b6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 34¢ | −21pp | $925 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x96cfcd71ed45e08b312ba37155767a1409aa65d9265dd47e691650b966761513 |
| O/U 3.5 | 15¢ | −2pp | $239 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x65835d9cb539cf33b6489619365554af29a588a1cee0ddd74e727d6981c3d417 |
| SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) | 14¢ | −6pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x71f745c092060c8f80e06e6bed5141039827ad2a3fb79dfbb6322455bd9b44e7 |
| Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5) | 10¢ | −1pp | $502 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x559461c25f175b01a1cbf6e4b72940b22f539eaf75dd59ecaca75722a2fd3557 |
| O/U 4.5 | 6¢ | +4pp | $373 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0xd128a438d67165805df816880348c9da14f4a48c449293d0a25e97f0e23233d7 |
| SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5) | 4¢ | +10pp | $70 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0xd92e3c6facd7cfe3772dc6c05c64835117ff536547aa381a46e39188f1b328a1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | — | 53 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 62 | 43 | 35 |
| 2026-05-07 | 45 | 30 | 14 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · O/U 2.5 −21pp 35→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 1.5 −17pp 62→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5) −16pp 20→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Both Teams to Score −13pp 43→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −12pp 18→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

SC Corinthians Paulista is priced to win by more than 2.5 goals with 65% probability in this fixture. The market implies Corinthians' advantage, though betting activity remains sparse across all related contracts with zero 24-hour volume. The current assessment reflects Corinthians' perceived strength relative to Santa Fe, but the low liquidity suggests limited confidence or market interest in the matchup. Resolution depends on the actual match outcome, expected to occur within the standard South American club fixture calendar. Key variables affecting the probability include each team's recent form, home-field status, squad availability, and head-to-head history.

### Key factors

- SC Corinthians Paulista priced at 65% to cover -2.5 spread indicates market expects at least 3-goal margin in their favor
- Draw contract trading at 30¢ and Both Teams to Score at 50¢ suggest alternative scenarios carry meaningful probability weight
- Zero 24-hour volume across all nine contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing
- Santa Fe (-2.5) contract at 11¢ reflects very low probability of a 3+ goal Santa Fe victory
- The spread between Corinthians' -2.5 line (65%) and the close runner-up outcome (50%) shows moderate consensus rather than near-certain expectation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-more
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-more

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