# Will Scott McLaughlin be the Grand Prix of Indianapolis Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 4 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/indycarrace
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.507Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Palou | 58¢ | +1pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-palou-be-the-grand-prix-of-indianapolis-kalshi-kxindycarrace-indi26-alpa |
| Christian Lundgaard | 10¢ | +7pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-christian-lundgaard-be-the-grand-prix-of-indi-kalshi-kxindycarrace-indi26-chlu |
| Graham Rahal | 3¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-graham-rahal-be-the-grand-prix-of-indianapoli-kalshi-kxindycarrace-indi26-grra |
| Kyle Kirkwood | 4¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-kirkwood-be-the-grand-prix-of-indianapol-kalshi-kxindycarrace-indi26-kyki |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 18 |
| 2026-05-08 | 18 |
| 2026-05-09 | 29 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Christian Lundgaard +7pp 5→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Kyle Kirkwood −4pp 8→4¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/indycarrace
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=indycarrace

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.