# Will inflation hit the 2% target?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 5 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inflation-target
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.481Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-12

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 43% / Polymarket 3% — 40pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-year-over-year-core-cpi-inflation-for-2026-fa-kalshi-kxcoreund-26dec10-t2.2 |
| 2.25% to 2.99% | 3¢ | +1pp | $264 | polymarket | /markets/india-annual-inflation-2026-225-to-299-polymarket-0x8aee74b7b847e182a4e80090d76c278ada71bfd9144d8cc0868c51a339524738 |
| Above 0.4% | 29¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-04-in-november-2026-above-kalshi-kxcpi-26nov-t0.4 |
| Above -0.1% | 86¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cpi-rise-more-than-01-in-november-2026-above-kalshi-kxcpi-26nov-t-0.1 |
| 3.00% to 3.49% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mexico-annual-inflation-2026-300-to-349-polymarket-0x039aecea63c2728234a00cbcf27ea0db3247c488b3cc97cf1cd213b2a4735edb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 13 |
| 2026-05-25 | 36 |
| 2026-06-01 | 21 |
| 2026-06-08 | 9 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Yes −3pp 21→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · 2.25% to 2.99% −3pp 4→1¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The most recent CPI report for April 2026 recorded a level of 332.4, reflecting a 3.78% year-over-year increase. Prediction markets currently place an 84% probability that the Airline Fares component will exceed 300.0 for May 2026 and a 94% probability that the Shelter CPI will exceed 426.0.

### Key factors

- CPI level at 332.4
- 3.78% YoY inflation rate
- Airline Fares inflation outlook
- Shelter CPI index trajectory

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inflation-target
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=inflation-target
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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