# Insurrection Act invoked by...

> December 31 leads at 23%, runner-up 8% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/insurrection-act-invoked
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:41.688Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 23%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 8%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/insurrection-act-invoked-by-december-31-polymarket-0xf59fe744e8f73124ccd8b351b101c51cd29bb449dab73b83ed74d05603b0dfb2 |
| June 30 | 8¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/insurrection-act-invoked-by-june-30-polymarket-0xf2982d808c8b0c88ed7d1fd22fb55993b0d1a0f738d202b0a8c2d6805b7125d3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 10 |
| 2026-04-10 | 25 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 26 | 11 |
| 2026-05-02 | 23 | 11 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 13 |
| 2026-05-08 | 23 | — |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 23% chance that the Insurrection Act will be invoked by June 30, 2026. The Insurrection Act grants the president authority to deploy armed forces domestically during emergencies. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether conditions (such as civil unrest, major security threats, or constitutional crises) would compel executive action. Related contracts on military deployments and domestic emergency powers suggest traders are pricing in heightened geopolitical and domestic tensions. The resolution date of June 30 means the market resolves in the next four weeks, making current events and policy announcements the primary drivers of price movement. A major domestic security incident or significant escalation in civil disorder would likely increase the probability; conversely, stable conditions or explicit statements ruling out such measures would pressure it downward.

### Key factors

- Current U.S. domestic security conditions and any active civil unrest or emergency declarations between now and June 30, 2026
- Presidential statements, policy announcements, or legislative actions regarding emergency powers in the next four weeks
- Historical precedent: the Insurrection Act has been invoked rarely (most recently during 1992 Los Angeles riots and 2020 George Floyd protests), suggesting high threshold for invocation
- Correlation with other geopolitical markets: the 37¢ probability on Cuba military action and elevated emergency-powers contracts suggest trader concern about broader instability
- Specific triggering events (major terrorist attacks, large-scale riots, natural disasters, or constitutional crises) that would meet the legal and political threshold for invocation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/insurrection-act-invoked
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=insurrection-act-invoked

## License

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