# Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency

> Before Jan 20, 2029 leads at 51%, runner-up 19% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/insurrection
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.908Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029 at 51%
- Runner-up: Before 2027 at 19%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $662

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 51¢ | +1pp | $298 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-invoke-the-insurrection-act-during-his-kalshi-kxinsurrection-29 |
| Before 2027 | 19¢ | ±0 | $364 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-invoke-the-insurrection-act-during-his-kalshi-kxinsurrection-29-27 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 20, 2029 | Before 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 57 | 24 |
| 2026-04-25 | 49 | 20 |
| 2026-05-01 | 50 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | 50 | 20 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 20 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Before 2027 −5pp 23→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects the likelihood that President Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act at some point during his presidency. The Insurrection Act is a federal law that permits the president to deploy armed forces to suppress insurrections or rebellion. The 50% probability suggests significant uncertainty about whether Trump will use this executive authority. The current level likely reflects both the broad scope of the authorization (it could apply to various domestic security scenarios) and historical precedent—the act has been invoked rarely in modern times. Key factors include ongoing civil unrest levels, military leadership positions and their counsel to the president, legislative pressure or opposition regarding deployment authority, and Trump's governing approach toward domestic security challenges. The primary driver of resolution will be whether any qualifying domestic crisis occurs that prompts presidential consideration of the act.

### Key factors

- Historical frequency of Insurrection Act invocation in modern presidencies (last used in 1992 for LA riots)
- Current and projected levels of civil unrest or domestic security incidents through end of Trump's term
- Composition and public positions of military leadership regarding domestic deployment authority
- Congressional activity regarding restrictions or authorizations on presidential emergency powers
- Trump's documented statements and past executive actions on military deployment and domestic security

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/insurrection
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=insurrection
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.