# Inter Kashi FC vs. North East United FC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inter-kashi-fc-vs-north-east-united-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:20.663Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 46% / Polymarket 32% — 14pp spread
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 20¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-protest-within-the-united-states-that-draws-kalshi-kxmajorprotest-26may |
| United States | 47¢ | +1pp | $298 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-united-states-polymarket-0x26c10c27cde58e2d6214d65ab562d8142d34723b3b6ec3f40836d24f6d22dfc9 |
| Incheon United FC | 29¢ | −4pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-inche-polymarket-0x10cbc272a36c8985d46640eaedb6a58c32cd54479bf4fc87e8d45f07774077dd |
| Republicans, 1+ pts | 11¢ | −2pp | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p1 |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 5¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |
| Draw (United States vs. Paraguay) | 27¢ | ±0 | $7 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-draw-united-states-vs-pa-polymarket-0x3774cdf17e49143a4f6e10812df8b06113731493842fccc52dea045a1744ae61 |
| 5+ wins in a row | 23¢ | +2pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-united-mens-soccer-win-at-least-5-kalshi-kxwinstreakmanu-27-5 |
| Democrats, 9+ pts | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p9 |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 43¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p11 |
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p3 |
| Democrats, 13+ pts | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p13 |
| Democrats, 7+ pts | 61¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p7 |
| Winner: Jilin Northeast Tigers | 41¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cba-winner-jilin-northeast-tigers-polymarket-0xc48bda64f04798499cb01a06626e4c738caa2c571b4aaa1d949abee093e7b354 |
| Berlin International Gaming | 71¢ | −40pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-berlin-international-gaming-win-map-2-in-the-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may051300usebig-2-big |
| Democrats, 5+ pts | 67¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p5 |
| Democrats, 3+ pts | 76¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p3 |
| Ōita Trinita (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x88fc7b7ae3b2ecf42ec2828e86c4701f3039aaadb163445ff377480f84be35d4 |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x2c9b2c177c59e71ec645a3e8f9aa0615fe7006817ec471b7ad0c04d9217af16e |
| Democrats, 1+ pts | 83¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 26 |
| 2026-04-19 | 19 |
| 2026-04-26 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Berlin International Gaming −40pp 44→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Democrats, 9+ pts +8pp 46→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Democrats, 13+ pts +7pp 26→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Democrats, 7+ pts +7pp 52→59¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects the aggregated probability that Inter Kashi FC will defeat North East United FC by a specific margin in an upcoming match. The 32% probability masks a significant pricing disagreement across venues: Kalshi prices the outcome at 11% while Polymarket values it at 76%, creating a 65-percentage-point spread. This divergence suggests traders on different platforms have reached different conclusions about team form, historical matchups, or specific betting rules differences. The probability will resolve when the match concludes, with the final outcome determined by the actual margin of victory. The extreme gap between platforms indicates either one market has identified an analytical edge, or the contracts are measuring subtly different conditions. Key drivers include recent performance records, head-to-head history, injury status, and home-field advantage considerations.

### Key factors

- Polymarket-Kalshi spread of 65 percentage points indicates material disagreement on contract specifications or team likelihood
- Kalshi contracts specify Republican margin thresholds (1+ and 3+ percentage points) with volume under $1,500 per contract in 24 hours
- Polymarket contract focuses on NYC FC vs D.C. United with 76-cent pricing and $271 volume, suggesting different sport or match entirely
- Cross-venue data suggests possible contract definition misalignment rather than unified market signal
- Low individual contract volumes ($271-$1,403 daily) indicate limited liquidity and potential for wide bid-ask spreads on both platforms

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inter-kashi-fc-vs-north-east-united-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=inter-kashi-fc-vs-north-east-united-fc-more-markets

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