# Inter Miami CF vs. New England Revolution

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 20 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inter-miami-cf-vs-new-england-revolution
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:20:26.007Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 41% / Polymarket 17% — 24pp spread
- 24h volume: $34K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vrabel | 78¢ | +2pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-head-coach-of-new-england-for-week-kalshi-kxcoachondate-ne26-mvra |
| Miami Heretics | 65¢ | +3pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-heretics-win-the-g2-minnesota-vs-miami-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031630g2mmh-mh |
| New England Patriots | 5¢ | +33pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/nfl-champion-2027-new-england-patriots-polymarket-0x8133843fe31063a6cc17c4582c023a832ee64802c98fcc08d79521629831d3c4 |
| New England | 3¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-2027-pro-football-champio-kalshi-kxsb-27-ne |
| New England | 82¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-aj-browns-next-team-new-england-kalshi-kxnextteamnfl-26abrown-ne |
| New England | 33¢ | — | $686 | kalshi | /markets/new-england-vs-philadelphia-winner-new-england-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09nephi-ne |
| Before 2027 | 45¢ | +3pp | $517 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-new-interstellar-visitor-be-confirmed-in-20-kalshi-kxinterstellar-26 |
| Miami Heretics | 63¢ | −2pp | $513 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-heretics-win-map-3-in-the-g2-minnesota-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031630g2mmh-3-mh |
| Philadelphia | 36¢ | +17pp | $428 | kalshi | /markets/new-england-vs-philadelphia-winner-philadelphia-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09nephi-phi |
| New England | 10¢ | — | $428 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-pro-football-afc-champion-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-ne |
| Josh McDaniels | 12¢ | ±0 | $245 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-head-coach-of-new-england-for-week-kalshi-kxcoachondate-ne26-jmcd |
| Over 4.5 maps | 29¢ | −13pp | $175 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-maps-be-played-in-the-g2-minnesota-vs-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031630g2mmh-5 |
| Over 3.5 maps | 66¢ | −31pp | $159 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-maps-be-played-in-the-g2-minnesota-vs-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031630g2mmh-4 |
| Inter Miami | 3¢ | −4pp | $141 | kalshi | /markets/where-will-neymar-go-next-inter-miami-kalshi-kxjoinclub-26oct02neymar-mia |
| Miami Heretics | 49¢ | −1pp | $108 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-heretics-win-map-2-in-the-g2-minnesota-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031630g2mmh-2-mh |
| New England | 37¢ | +2pp | $96 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-pro-football-afc-east-div-kalshi-kxnflafceast-27-ne |
| New England Patriots | 3¢ | +1pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-new-england-pa-polymarket-0xc1e89745d47201cc7ef7088e5d415b2b7181f776b078a19a58686c8f192ddf27 |
| New Zealand | 24¢ | +3pp | $55 | polymarket | /markets/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-new-zealand-polymarket-0x4d32282db59ec449edbc191b4b487b7f8218c07d6f94b0c01e2e7ddf6964c26d |
| Croatia | 20¢ | +1pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/england-vs-croatia-croatia-polymarket-0x90b9d20ece132c342654f98e0826e972134b10f58d4789c2662bdc00eee44b13 |
| New England Revolution | 31¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-club-will-cristiano-ronaldo-play-for-next-ne-polymarket-0x162c2887f5aacb82c1fdfd7bcb5a3d7767187fc40474ba8e95b15d7e9c39b850 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 39 |
| 2026-04-19 | 24 |
| 2026-04-26 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 39 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · New England Revolution +50pp 0→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · New England Patriots +33pp 6→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Over 3.5 maps +33pp 34→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Over 3.5 maps +32pp 2→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 3.5 maps −31pp 67→36¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inter-miami-cf-vs-new-england-revolution
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=inter-miami-cf-vs-new-england-revolution

## License

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