# Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inter-miami-cf-vs-orlando-city-sc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:05:22.355Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-02

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 45% / Polymarket 34% — 11pp spread
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heretics | 65¢ | +3pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-heretics-win-the-g2-minnesota-vs-miami-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031630g2mmh-mh |
| Miami Heretics | 63¢ | −2pp | $513 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-heretics-win-map-3-in-the-g2-minnesota-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031630g2mmh-3-mh |
| Zero Tenacity | 16¢ | +3pp | $341 | kalshi | /markets/will-zero-tenacity-win-the-zero-tenacity-vs-nigma-kalshi-kxdota2game-26may031100z10ngx-z10 |
| Miami Heretics | 54¢ | −2pp | $307 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-heretics-win-map-1-in-the-g2-minnesota-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031630g2mmh-1-mh |
| Over 4.5 maps | 29¢ | −13pp | $175 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-maps-be-played-in-the-g2-minnesota-vs-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031630g2mmh-5 |
| Over 3.5 maps | 66¢ | −31pp | $159 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-maps-be-played-in-the-g2-minnesota-vs-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031630g2mmh-4 |
| Nigma Galaxy | 81¢ | ±0 | $158 | kalshi | /markets/will-nigma-galaxy-win-the-zero-tenacity-vs-nigma-g-kalshi-kxdota2game-26may031100z10ngx-ngx |
| Inter Miami | 3¢ | −4pp | $141 | kalshi | /markets/where-will-neymar-go-next-inter-miami-kalshi-kxjoinclub-26oct02neymar-mia |
| Miami Heretics | 49¢ | −1pp | $108 | kalshi | /markets/will-miami-heretics-win-map-2-in-the-g2-minnesota-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031630g2mmh-2-mh |
| G2 Minnesota | 33¢ | ±0 | $84 | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-minnesota-win-the-g2-minnesota-vs-miami-he-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031630g2mmh-g2m |
| Inter Miami CF | 19¢ | +3pp | $21 | polymarket | /markets/mls-cup-winner-2026-inter-miami-cf-polymarket-0x484d3e1f00df54f5084984da97d330cfc1a898f952d7fe87278944b459864ba9 |
| Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition | 12¢ | ±0 | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-unicorns-of-love-sexy-edition-win-the-unicorn-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may051300usebig-use |
| G2 Minnesota | 42¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-minnesota-win-map-1-in-the-g2-minnesota-vs-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031630g2mmh-1-g2m |
| Zero Tenacity | 23¢ | +2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-zero-tenacity-win-map-2-in-the-zero-tenacity-kalshi-kxdota2map-26may031100z10ngx-2-z10 |
| Berlin International Gaming | 81¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-berlin-international-gaming-win-the-unicorns-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may051300usebig-big |
| Zero Tenacity | 34¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-zero-tenacity-win-the-rekonix-vs-zero-tenacit-kalshi-kxdota2game-26may040500rnxz10-z10 |
| East Bengal FC (-1.5) | 17¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-east-polymarket-0x1ef468ee3081d30662507065ce715a91db79b15ca6d9b4751e4f518e347d3cd4 |
| Berlin International Gaming | 71¢ | −40pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-berlin-international-gaming-win-map-2-in-the-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may051300usebig-2-big |
| O/U 1.5 | 66¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x0e25b551a118495f7e2c433fd68e6e53fcf38d6641d1723c648e6161691a6674 |
| Yokohama FC (-2.5) | 34¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tochigi-city-fc-vs-yokohama-fc-more-markets-yokoha-polymarket-0x63f37e77be6ee67b7a2136a946b8e213b3e172b4af30e83a2706e476c714c527 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 18 |
| 2026-04-19 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Berlin International Gaming −40pp 44→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Over 3.5 maps +33pp 34→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Over 3.5 maps +32pp 2→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 3.5 maps −31pp 67→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Over 4.5 maps +14pp 2→16¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inter-miami-cf-vs-orlando-city-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=inter-miami-cf-vs-orlando-city-sc

## License

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