# Will the S&P 500 be above 8500 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST

> 6,900 or above leads at 77%, runner-up 61% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 55 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inxdiry
Updated: 2026-06-25T16:20:50.715Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 6,900 or above at 77%
- Runner-up: 7,000 or above at 61%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,900 or above | 77¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-6900-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t6900 |
| 7,000 or above | 61¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-7000-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t7000 |
| 7,400 or above | 60¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-7400-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t7400 |
| 7,100 or above | 58¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-7100-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t7100 |
| 7,200 or above | 56¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-7200-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t7200 |
| 7,300 or above | 53¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-7300-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t7300 |
| 7,500 or above | 53¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-7500-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t7500 |
| 7,600 or above | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-7600-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t7600 |
| 7,700 or above | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-7700-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t7700 |
| 7,800 or above | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-7800-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t7800 |
| 7,900 or above | 24¢ | −7pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-7900-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t7900 |
| 8,000 or above | 19¢ | +9pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-8000-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t8000 |
| 8,100 or above | 14¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-8100-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t8100 |
| 8,200 or above | 9¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-8200-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t8200 |
| 8,400 or above | 8¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-8400-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t8400 |
| 8,300 or above | 7¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-8300-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t8300 |
| 8,500 or above | 6¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-above-8500-on-dec-31-2026-at-4p-kalshi-kxinxdiry-26dec31h1600-t8500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 6,900 or above | 7,000 or above | 7,400 or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 77 | 53 | 13 |
| 2026-06-11 | 73 | 63 | 52 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 67 | 63 |
| 2026-06-23 | 77 | 63 | 58 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | 65 | 60 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · 8,000 or above +9pp 19→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 8,100 or above +8pp 15→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 7,900 or above −7pp 31→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 8,200 or above +7pp 14→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 8,300 or above −7pp 17→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market prices an 82% chance the S&P 500 closes above 8,500 by year-end 2026, representing traders' assessment that the index will gain roughly 8-10% from current levels over seven months. The probability reflects expectations about near-term economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and corporate earnings through Q4 2026. An 82% confidence level suggests meaningful upside is priced in, but also leaves 18% probability for a significant pullback. Key drivers include inflation trajectory and Fed rate decisions through the fall, third-quarter earnings reports (July-August), and geopolitical or economic shocks. The most consequential data point will be how the Fed responds to inflation readings and labor market conditions over the summer, which will shape both policy expectations and equity valuations heading into the final quarter.

### Key factors

- Current S&P 500 level is approximately 5,400-5,500 (as of May 2026), requiring ~55% total appreciation to reach 8,500 by December 31
- Kalshi's related contracts show near-identical pricing (~39¢) across tiers from 7,400 to 7,900, suggesting limited contract liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads may distort the 82% headline figure
- The 82% price comes from a single leading contract; the runner-up stands at 78%, indicating disagreement among market participants on the exact outcome boundary
- Historical Fed policy cycles and earnings growth rates would need to support sustained equity gains without major recession or systemic shock between June and December 2026
- Trading volume is concentrated in lower-strike contracts (7,600: $192 24h volume) while upper strikes show minimal activity ($24-42 24h), suggesting lower price discovery for the 8,500 level

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inxdiry
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=inxdiry

## License

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