# Will the maximum SP500 value reach 7600 by May 29, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inxmaxmm
Updated: 2026-05-30T07:20:12.459Z
Category: markets
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 7575 at 59%
- Runner-up: Above 7600 at 33%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $444

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 7575 | 59¢ | +32pp | $173 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-sp500-value-reach-7575-by-may-29-kalshi-kxinxmaxmm-29may2026-7575 |
| Above 7600 | 33¢ | +12pp | $271 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-sp500-value-reach-7600-by-may-29-kalshi-kxinxmaxmm-29may2026-7600 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 7575 | Above 7600 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 4 | 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | 54 | 26 |
| 2026-05-29 | 52 | 21 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that traders estimate a 59% chance the S&P 500 will reach at least 7475 at some point between now and May 29, 2026—roughly two weeks away. The market is pricing in moderate confidence that the index can gain approximately 2.5% from current levels. The probability reflects recent market momentum and volatility expectations; stronger economic data or corporate earnings could push this higher, while recession concerns or geopolitical shocks could lower it. The key driver is whether the index maintains upward momentum through the resolution date, with daily market movements and any major macroeconomic announcements serving as immediate catalysts. Notably, the probability drops sharply at higher thresholds (7500+), suggesting traders see 7475 as a plausible near-term target but view anything significantly higher as less likely within this compressed timeframe.

### Key factors

- S&P 500 requires approximately 300-350 points (~2.5%) from current levels to reach 7475 by May 29
- Historical volatility and intraday ranges will determine whether intraday maximums reach the target, even if closing prices don't sustain those levels
- Probability declines steeply for 7500 and higher levels (13% and below), indicating low conviction above 7475
- No major economic data releases, Fed decisions, or earnings-season events appear scheduled as direct catalysts in this 15-day window
- Market liquidity and volume patterns in May typically show lower activity heading into the Memorial Day period, potentially affecting price discovery

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inxmaxmm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=inxmaxmm

## License

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