# Will the S&P 500 be between 6000 and 6199.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST

> 7,800 to 7,999.99 leads at 13%, runner-up 11% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inxy
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.460Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 7,800 to 7,999.99 at 13%
- Runner-up: 7,600 to 7,799.99 at 11%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7,800 to 7,999.99 | 13¢ | +1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-7800-and-799999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b7900 |
| 7,600 to 7,799.99 | 11¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-7600-and-779999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b7700 |
| 8,000 to 8,199.99 | 11¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-8000-and-819999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b8100 |
| 8,200 to 8,399.99 | 8¢ | +1pp | $537 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-8200-and-839999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b8300 |
| 7,400 to 7,599.99 | 7¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-7400-and-759999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b7500 |
| 7,200 to 7,399.99 | 5¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-7200-and-739999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b7300 |
| 6,600 to 6,799.99 | 3¢ | — | $290 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-6600-and-679999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b6700 |
| 7,000 to 7,199.99 | 3¢ | −1pp | $218 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-7000-and-719999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b7100 |
| 6,400 to 6,599.99 | 3¢ | −1pp | $155 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-6400-and-659999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b6500 |
| 6,800 to 6,999.99 | 3¢ | −1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-6800-and-699999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b6900 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 7,800 to 7,999.99 | 7,600 to 7,799.99 | 8,000 to 8,199.99 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| 2026-06-12 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| 2026-06-19 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
| 2026-06-25 | 14 | 12 | 13 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · 7,600 to 7,799.99 +3pp 11→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 14% probability that the S&P 500 closes between 6,000 and 6,199.99 on December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a substantially higher year-end close, with the highest probability (14%) centered around 7,600–7,799.99, suggesting traders expect continued gains over the next seven months. The lower 6,000–6,199 range represents a significant drawdown scenario—roughly 15% below current levels. This probability could shift based on macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy signals, corporate earnings trends, and broader market volatility. The resolution point is fixed: the S&P 500's official closing price on December 31, 2026 at 4pm EST.

### Key factors

- Current S&P 500 level (approximately 5,200–5,300 range as of early May 2026) relative to the 6,000–6,199 target, implying modest upside is required for this contract to resolve yes
- Distribution of probabilities across all outcome buckets shows median expectations around 7,000–7,400, leaving the 6,000–6,199 range in the lower tail of outcomes
- Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory and inflation data through Q3 and Q4 2026 will materially influence whether the market reaches or retreats from this price level
- Earnings growth and valuations through mid-2026 earnings seasons (Q1 reports already underway, Q2 in July) will test whether current forward expectations remain plausible
- Market volatility regimes and geopolitical or economic shocks between now and year-end could compress or expand the probability of lower-range outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/inxy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=inxy

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.