# IPL Game Predictions

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipl-games
Updated: 2026-05-29T19:20:12.618Z
Category: sports · Topic: ipl-cricket
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Rajasthan Royals at 52%
- Runner-up: Gujarat Titans at 48%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $221K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajasthan Royals | 52¢ | — | $133K | kalshi | /markets/gujarat-titans-vs-rajasthan-royals-winner-rajastha-kalshi-kxiplgame-26may291000rrgt-rr |
| Gujarat Titans | 48¢ | — | $88K | kalshi | /markets/gujarat-titans-vs-rajasthan-royals-winner-gujarat-kalshi-kxiplgame-26may291000rrgt-gt |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Rajasthan Royals | Gujarat Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 49 | 48 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations for outcomes in ongoing Indian Premier League matches during the 2026 season. The 41% aggregate reflects uncertainty across multiple concurrent matchups, with trading concentrated on the Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals contest showing near-parity at 51-48 cents. Market participants are pricing in team form, player availability, and venue conditions as matches unfold. The resolution depends entirely on match results as games are played over the coming days, with each fixture providing definitive outcomes that will either confirm or contradict current pricing. Trading volume concentration in the MI-RR matchup ($14,826 in 24h) versus lower liquidity in other contracts suggests some disagreement about relative probabilities across different pairings.

### Key factors

- Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals contract shows near-even split (51-48 cents) despite being highest-volume contract, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus among traders
- Kolkata Knight Riders priced at 56 cents versus Delhi Capitals at 42 cents suggests market confidence in KKR, but volume remains relatively modest at $2,228
- Royal Challengers Bengaluru at 36 cents against Gujarat Titans reflects lowest confidence tier, though contract shows minimal trading activity ($302)
- Current spread across contracts shows no single matchup dominates market conviction, with probabilities ranging from 36-56 cents
- Each fixture will resolve within days, providing objective match outcomes that will immediately shift related contract values

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipl-games
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ipl-games
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ipl-cricket

## License

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