# IPL

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 6 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipl
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:09.746Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange Cap Winner: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi | 37¢ | −4pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/ipl-orange-cap-winner-vaibhav-sooryavanshi-polymarket-0x3717c8ca2cbc1acd035da38c0bf1a7696189f43de38d0cc7591e697d9c7fa5f5 |
| Orange Cap Winner: Sai Sudharsan | 26¢ | +2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/ipl-orange-cap-winner-sai-sudharsan-polymarket-0xe68b5fbaca7f16a804864a31f1480a998dfe73a801589c5189041eaa556bd26e |
| Orange Cap Winner: Shubman Gill | 38¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/ipl-orange-cap-winner-shubman-gill-polymarket-0x0b7b1087838bf8a1947fcfed7b1e77e3a341eec0d7a7cbfa0df00402669a0950 |
| Purple Cap Winner: Mohammed Sira | 3¢ | −20pp | $393 | polymarket | /markets/ipl-purple-cap-winner-mohammed-sira-polymarket-0xcee1daa676afe0db72359ca1304c4a69dd39bcd893d3c377919815262275bcf6 |
| Purple Cap Winner: Kagiso Rabada | 63¢ | +5pp | $48 | polymarket | /markets/ipl-purple-cap-winner-kagiso-rabada-polymarket-0x6be25342d707186fbf2ab3e511a95e461768edc8a06e038ec07ce7c5822d1b6a |
| Purple Cap Winner: Bhuvneshwar Kumar | 32¢ | +4pp | $18 | polymarket | /markets/ipl-purple-cap-winner-bhuvneshwar-kumar-polymarket-0x7c172b75faee3cb312a5e1b323c5e76712b0049e87cc63652acd6efb987b8ba8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | 33 |
| 2026-05-29 | 34 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Purple Cap Winner: Mohammed Sira −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Orange Cap Winner: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi +19pp 28→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Purple Cap Winner: Bhuvneshwar Kumar −17pp 70→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Orange Cap Winner: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi +12pp 16→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Orange Cap Winner: Shubman Gill −8pp 35→27¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 17% probability reflects the aggregate market assessment of whether a specific player will win the Orange Cap (leading run-scorer award) in the Indian Premier League tournament. The current season's performance data and remaining matches are the primary drivers of these odds. Early-season form, injury status, and team batting order changes directly influence which batsmen accumulate the most runs. The season concludes with the IPL final, which represents the last opportunity for players to add to their run totals and could dramatically shift the leader. Markets are currently spreading probability across multiple contenders, with no single player commanding dominant odds, suggesting competitive batting performances across franchises.

### Key factors

- Yashasvi Jaiswal at 6¢ shows minimal market confidence despite being listed, while Sai Sudharsan at 32¢ represents the highest single-contract probability among top contenders
- High 24-hour trading volumes ($100-114) on Jaiswal, Sooryavanshi, and Kishan indicate active market engagement with uncertainty about the outcome
- The distribution across five named contenders with probabilities ranging from 6¢ to 32¢ suggests no clear statistical favorite and competitive scoring dynamics
- Orange Cap outcomes depend on remaining matches scheduled, player availability, and team strategies that prioritize batting depth
- The 17% aggregate masks significant probability mass: the five listed contracts total approximately 93¢, with 7¢ distributed across other potential winners

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ipl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.