# Who will win IPL Orange Cap

> Vaibhav Sooryavanshi leads at 26%, runner-up 18% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 21 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iplorangecap
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.106Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-22

## Headline

- Leader: Vaibhav Sooryavanshi at 26%
- Runner-up: Sai Sudharsan at 18%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $589

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaibhav Sooryavanshi | 26¢ | +18pp | $163 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-ipl-orange-cap-vaibhav-sooryavanshi-kalshi-kxiplorangecap-26-vsoo |
| Sai Sudharsan | 18¢ | +7pp | $423 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-ipl-orange-cap-sai-sudharsan-kalshi-kxiplorangecap-26-ssud |
| Shubman Gill | 11¢ | +2pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-ipl-orange-cap-shubman-gill-kalshi-kxiplorangecap-26-sgil |
| Virat Kohli | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-ipl-orange-cap-virat-kohli-kalshi-kxiplorangecap-26-vkoh |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Vaibhav Sooryavanshi | Sai Sudharsan | Shubman Gill |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 50 | — | — |
| 2026-05-26 | — | — | 2 |
| 2026-05-27 | 12 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-05-28 | 30 | 10 | 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | — | 17 | — |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Vaibhav Sooryavanshi −38pp 50→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Vaibhav Sooryavanshi +18pp 12→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Sai Sudharsan +8pp 2→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-29 · Sai Sudharsan +7pp 10→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The Orange Cap recognizes the highest run-scorer across an IPL season. Vaibhav Sooryavanshi is currently priced at 28% to win this award, reflecting modest confidence given the abundance of established heavy hitters in the league. The probability is driven by Sooryavanshi's recent form and playing opportunities, though established batsmen like Shubman Gill (3%) and others command significantly lower odds. The award will be determined by aggregate performance across all IPL matches in the 2026 season, with outcomes becoming clearer as more games are played and individual run tallies accumulate. Trading volume remains minimal (zero 24-hour volume), suggesting limited market activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads. Resolution depends entirely on final season statistics, making the projection increasingly reliable as the tournament progresses.

### Key factors

- Vaibhav Sooryavanshi's 28% price substantially exceeds those of established batsmen like Shubman Gill (3%), indicating market confidence in his current form relative to peers
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all four contracts suggests low liquidity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect recent matches or roster changes
- The Orange Cap winner typically accumulates 600+ runs over an IPL season; Sooryavanshi's eligibility, team role, and playing time directly determine his run-scoring ceiling
- Injury to Sooryavanshi or reduced playing time due to team strategy would mechanically lower his probability as fewer matches reduce available scoring opportunities
- As the season progresses, actual run totals become observable data, making the market increasingly efficient and less subject to speculation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iplorangecap
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iplorangecap

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.