# IPL Playoff Qualifiers

> Sunrisers Hyderabad leads at 94%, runner-up 90% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iplplayoff
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.510Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Sunrisers Hyderabad at 94%
- Runner-up: Punjab Kings at 90%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunrisers Hyderabad | 94¢ | +5pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/ipl-playoff-qualifiers-sunrisers-hyderabad-kalshi-kxiplplayoff-26-srh |
| Punjab Kings | 90¢ | +1pp | $293 | kalshi | /markets/ipl-playoff-qualifiers-punjab-kings-kalshi-kxiplplayoff-26-pbks |
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 85¢ | −2pp | $365 | kalshi | /markets/ipl-playoff-qualifiers-royal-challengers-bengaluru-kalshi-kxiplplayoff-26-rcb |
| Gujarat Titans | 49¢ | −11pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/ipl-playoff-qualifiers-gujarat-titans-kalshi-kxiplplayoff-26-gt |
| Rajasthan Royals | 45¢ | −9pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/ipl-playoff-qualifiers-rajasthan-royals-kalshi-kxiplplayoff-26-rr |
| Chennai Super Kings | 6¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/ipl-playoff-qualifiers-chennai-super-kings-kalshi-kxiplplayoff-26-csk |
| Kolkata Knight Riders | 5¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/ipl-playoff-qualifiers-kolkata-knight-riders-kalshi-kxiplplayoff-26-kkr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Sunrisers Hyderabad | Punjab Kings | Royal Challengers Bengaluru |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 44 | 86 | 86 |
| 2026-05-02 | 82 | 90 | 86 |
| 2026-05-09 | 93 | 88 | 84 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Royal Challengers Bengaluru +24pp 62→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Chennai Super Kings +23pp 2→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Gujarat Titans +23pp 18→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Gujarat Titans −11pp 46→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Gujarat Titans −11pp 35→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market currently prices Punjab Kings at a 94% probability of qualifying for the IPL playoffs, reflecting their competitive position with roughly three weeks remaining in the 2026 IPL season. This high probability indicates the market views Punjab as having a substantial cushion in the standings relative to teams fighting for the final playoff spots. The main drivers are Punjab's current net run rate, their remaining fixture schedule, and the performance of competing teams like Sunrisers Hyderabad (84%) and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (88%). The probability will fluctuate based on match results in early May, particularly how Punjab performs against upper-table teams and whether mid-pack teams close the gap in wins. The IPL regular season concludes around May 25–26, at which point the four playoff qualifiers will be mathematically determined, fully resolving this contract.

### Key factors

- Punjab Kings' current position in the points table and net run rate relative to the fifth-place team
- Strength of Punjab's remaining fixtures against teams above and below them in the standings
- Head-to-head records and recent form trends for the five teams competing for the fourth playoff spot
- Changes to team composition due to injuries or roster adjustments before the trade/replacement deadline if applicable
- Volume concentration on Punjab (94¢, $10K+ daily volume) versus scattered liquidity on alternatives, suggesting consensus but limited arbitrage pressure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iplplayoff
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iplplayoff

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.