# Who will IPO before 2027

> Anthropic leads at 84%, runner-up 67% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 16 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipo
Updated: 2026-06-25T16:20:51.150Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Anthropic at 84%
- Runner-up: OpenAI at 67%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 84¢ | +3pp | $131 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-anthropic-kalshi-kxipo-26-anthropic |
| OpenAI | 67¢ | ±0 | $147 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-openai-kalshi-kxipo-26-openai |
| Discord | 55¢ | +1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-discord-kalshi-kxipo-26-discord |
| Kraken | 22¢ | −2pp | $949 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-kraken-kalshi-kxipo-26-kraken |
| Shein | 19¢ | +2pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-shein-kalshi-kxipo-26-shein |
| Applied Intuition | 13¢ | −1pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-applied-intuition-kalshi-kxipo-26-aintuition |
| Beast Industries | 11¢ | −2pp | $89 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-in-2026-beast-industries-kalshi-kxipo-26-beas |
| Stripe | 9¢ | ±0 | $175 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-stripe-kalshi-kxipo-26-stripe |
| Databricks | 9¢ | +1pp | $144 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-databricks-kalshi-kxipo-26-databricks |
| Ramp | 8¢ | ±0 | $11 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-ramp-kalshi-kxipo-26-ramp |
| Skims | 8¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-skims-kalshi-kxipo-26-skims |
| Deel | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-deel-kalshi-kxipo-26-deel |
| Glean | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-glean-kalshi-kxipo-26-glean |
| Rippling | 7¢ | +1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-rippling-kalshi-kxipo-26-rippling |
| Anduril | 5¢ | −1pp | $436 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-anduril-kalshi-kxipo-26-anduril |
| Plaid | 5¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-plaid-kalshi-kxipo-26-plaid |
| Celonis | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-celonis-kalshi-kxipo-26-celonis |
| Airwallex | 4¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-airwallex-kalshi-kxipo-26-airwallex |
| Brex | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-ipo-before-2027-brex-kalshi-kxipo-26-brex |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Anthropic | OpenAI | Discord |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 77 | 83 | — |
| 2026-05-28 | 71 | 78 | 57 |
| 2026-06-11 | 90 | 55 | 59 |
| 2026-06-18 | 87 | 66 | 57 |
| 2026-06-24 | 84 | 66 | 55 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Kraken −7pp 37→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Anthropic −5pp 85→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Databricks −4pp 11→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Anthropic −4pp 91→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Discord −4pp 57→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 27% probability reflects the chance that at least one major private technology company will complete an initial public offering by the end of 2026. Market pricing shows significant differentiation: Anthropic trades at 76 cents, suggesting elevated near-term IPO odds, while OpenAI at 47 cents indicates meaningful but uncertain near-term likelihood. The probability depends on two primary forces: company readiness and valuation preferences (whether founders and boards view public markets as favorable), and broader market conditions affecting IPO appetite. Key upcoming catalysts include quarterly earnings reports and any public statements from company leadership regarding capital plans. Economic conditions, interest rate expectations, and comparable technology IPO performance will influence whether companies proceed or defer offerings.

### Key factors

- Anthropic's 76-cent contract price implies market participants assess this company as most likely to IPO first, reflecting reported discussions with potential investors and stated capital-raising ambitions
- OpenAI at 47 cents suggests meaningful uncertainty around timing despite its market prominence, potentially reflecting governance complexities and ongoing strategic decisions about corporate structure
- Macro IPO market conditions: the aggregate 27% reflects relatively low confidence in near-term tech IPO activity, suggesting traders view current market appetite or company readiness as limited
- Most other major private companies (Stripe, Anduril, Glean) trade below 10 cents, indicating consensus assigns them substantially lower probability despite their valuations and market positions
- The 7-8 month remaining window to resolution (through end of 2026) compresses timing uncertainty; any company IPO filings in the next 2-3 months would materially shift probabilities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ipo

## License

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