# When will Anduril IPO

> Before Jun 1, 2027 leads at 13%, runner-up 10% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipoanduril
Updated: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.210Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jun 1, 2027 at 13%
- Runner-up: Before May 1, 2027 at 10%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-anduril-ipo-before-jun-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoanduril-27jun01 |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-anduril-ipo-before-may-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoanduril-27may01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-anduril-ipo-before-sep-1-2026-kalshi-kxipoanduril-26sep01 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 7¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-anduril-ipo-before-apr-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoanduril-27apr01 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-anduril-ipo-before-feb-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoanduril-27feb01 |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-anduril-ipo-before-mar-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoanduril-27mar01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jun 1, 2027 | Before May 1, 2027 | Before Sep 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 20 | — | — |
| 2026-05-30 | 25 | 10 | — |
| 2026-06-04 | 19 | 9 | 8 |
| 2026-06-09 | 19 | 7 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 16 | 9 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 14 | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | 12 | — | — |
| 2026-06-22 | 13 | 10 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 14 | — | — |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Before Jun 1, 2027 +4pp 13→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Before Jun 1, 2027 −3pp 17→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

An 18% probability indicates the market assesses a less-than-one-in-five chance that Anduril Industries will complete an IPO by the end of 2026. This reflects the typical timeline for defense technology companies preparing for public markets, which typically requires 12-24 months of preparation including regulatory filings and SEC review. The current level suggests skepticism about Anduril meeting a 2026 deadline, though the company has not publicly committed to this timeframe. Key drivers include the company's funding stage, existing regulatory scrutiny of defense contractors, and comparable timelines from similar companies. Market participants appear to be pricing in a higher probability of OpenAI or SpaceX IPOs before Anduril, based on those contracts trading notably higher. The main uncertainty would be resolved by either SEC filing announcements from Anduril or explicit public statements from leadership regarding IPO timing.

### Key factors

- Anduril has raised significant venture funding but has not announced formal IPO plans or SEC filing timeline as of mid-2026
- Defense technology companies face extended regulatory review periods; comparable contractors typically require 18+ months from announcement to market listing
- Comparable contracts show SpaceX before July 2026 at 79¢ and Anthropic IPO announcement before Nov 2026 at 72¢, suggesting market expects other tech IPOs ahead of Anduril
- Anduril's "before 2027" contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, indicating only ~8% probability even with a 6+ month window
- No scheduled dates, regulatory filings, or leadership statements in public record indicate imminent IPO process

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipoanduril
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ipoanduril

## License

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