# When will AppsFlyer IPO

> Before Jun 1, 2027 leads at 22%, runner-up 19% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipoappsflyer
Updated: 2026-06-25T15:20:51.372Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jun 1, 2027 at 22%
- Runner-up: Before May 1, 2027 at 19%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 22¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-appsflyer-ipo-before-jun-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoappsflyer-27jun01 |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 19¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-appsflyer-ipo-before-may-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoappsflyer-27may01 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-appsflyer-ipo-before-apr-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoappsflyer-27apr01 |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-appsflyer-ipo-before-mar-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoappsflyer-27mar01 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-appsflyer-ipo-before-feb-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoappsflyer-27feb01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-appsflyer-ipo-before-aug-1-2026-kalshi-kxipoappsflyer-26aug01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-appsflyer-ipo-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoappsflyer-27jan01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-appsflyer-ipo-before-jul-1-2026-kalshi-kxipoappsflyer-26jul01 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-appsflyer-ipo-before-dec-1-2026-kalshi-kxipoappsflyer-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-appsflyer-ipo-before-nov-1-2026-kalshi-kxipoappsflyer-26nov01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jun 1, 2027 | Before May 1, 2027 | Before Apr 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 23 | — | — |
| 2026-06-02 | — | 20 | — |
| 2026-06-10 | 24 | — | 17 |
| 2026-06-15 | — | 19 | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 22 | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | — | — | 16 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Markets currently assign a 26% probability that AppsFlyer will complete an IPO by June 2026, based on the leading contract outcome. This reflects trader assessment that a near-term public offering is unlikely but possible. The probability is driven primarily by the lack of public IPO announcements or regulatory filings as of May 2026, offset by the company's scale (a major mobile attribution platform) and historical precedent of tech unicorns pursuing public markets. The main catalyst for resolution comes in just weeks: if AppsFlyer announces IPO plans or files with regulators before June 1, 2026, the probability would likely spike; conversely, if June passes without such signals, the market will shift focus to later timeframes. Broader tech IPO conditions and venture capital sentiment also influence the current discount.

### Key factors

- AppsFlyer has not publicly announced IPO intent or filed S-1 documentation as of May 2026
- The company operates in mobile analytics with significant enterprise customer base, a sector that has supported successful public offerings
- Current market probability (26%) is materially lower than probabilities for SpaceX (79% before July 2026) and Anthropic announcement (72-73% before Nov-Dec 2026), suggesting relative skepticism about AppsFlyer's immediate IPO timeline
- Tech IPO market conditions in 2026 and venture capital funding climate directly influence private company liquidity decisions
- June 1, 2026 represents an imminent binary decision point—either the company files/announces or the market reprices expectations to later periods

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipoappsflyer
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ipoappsflyer

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.