# When will OpenAI IPO

> Before Jun 1, 2027 leads at 91%, runner-up 87% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipoopenai
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.803Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jun 1, 2027 at 91%
- Runner-up: Before May 1, 2027 at 87%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $428

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 91¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-jun-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoopenai-27jun01 |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 87¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-may-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoopenai-27may01 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 86¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-apr-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoopenai-27apr01 |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 85¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-feb-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoopenai-27feb01 |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 85¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-mar-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoopenai-27mar01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 75¢ | −1pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxipoopenai-27jan01 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 72¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-dec-1-2026-kalshi-kxipoopenai-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 70¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-nov-1-2026-kalshi-kxipoopenai-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 48¢ | ±0 | $9 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-oct-1-2026-kalshi-kxipoopenai-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 7¢ | ±0 | $334 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-sep-1-2026-kalshi-kxipoopenai-26sep01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-openai-ipo-before-aug-1-2026-kalshi-kxipoopenai-26aug01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jun 1, 2027 | Before May 1, 2027 | Before Apr 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 56 | 57 | 51 |
| 2026-05-24 | 94 | 94 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 93 | — | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 92 | 95 | 92 |
| 2026-06-01 | 91 | 90 | 90 |
| 2026-06-05 | 91 | 88 | 87 |
| 2026-06-06 | — | — | 86 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 87 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −4pp 56→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −3pp 81→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −3pp 78→75¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 39% probability reflects the market's assessment that OpenAI will complete an initial public offering before January 1, 2027—roughly eight months from now. The estimate sits between stronger confidence in Anthropic's IPO plans (72%) and weaker confidence in SpaceX timing (10-79% depending on the specific deadline). OpenAI's valuation has been a contentious issue, with the company and investors disagreeing on pricing, which could either accelerate or delay a public offering. The primary catalyst would be any official announcement from OpenAI's leadership regarding IPO timing or a regulatory filing. Near-term developments include decisions by other AI companies and market conditions for high-growth tech stocks, which influence both investor appetite and company readiness to go public.

### Key factors

- OpenAI and major stakeholders have not publicly announced IPO plans or filed preliminary documents as of early May 2026
- Recent valuations and fundraising rounds have shown disagreement between the company and investors, potentially delaying IPO readiness
- Comparable AI company IPO timelines (Anthropic at 72% probability for announcement before November 2026) provide market benchmarks
- The tech IPO market conditions and investor appetite for AI companies in mid-2026 directly affect timing feasibility
- Company profitability, revenue milestones, and governance structure must meet SEC requirements before any offering can proceed

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipoopenai
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ipoopenai
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.