# When will SpaceX IPO

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipospacex
Updated: 2026-06-13T13:20:50.695Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 97¢ | +1pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spacex-ipo-before-jul-1-2026-kalshi-kxipospacex-26jul01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 93 |
| 2026-06-01 | 95 |
| 2026-06-08 | 98 |
| 2026-06-10 | 99 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 96% probability reflects market expectations that SpaceX will conduct an initial public offering before June 1, 2026—just weeks away. The high confidence appears driven by recent public signals from company leadership about IPO timelines and the competitive pressure from other AI and space companies pursuing public markets. However, the contract with only 10 cents trading volume on the June deadline suggests thin liquidity and uncertainty among actual traders about the exact timing. The main factors pushing this probability up or down would be any official IPO announcement from SpaceX or statements from CEO Elon Musk about timing. The June 1 deadline represents the primary near-term catalyst; if SpaceX does not launch its IPO by then, the market would likely reprice significantly to later dates like July or beyond. Secondary considerations include regulatory approval speed from the SEC and market conditions that could delay the offering.

### Key factors

- SpaceX has not yet filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC as of early May 2026, which is typically required 1-3 months before IPO execution
- Trading volume on the June 1 contract is only $36,524 in 24-hour volume compared to the July 1 contract at $1,191, suggesting traders may not be confident in the near-term timing
- The July 1 contract trades at 79 cents, significantly lower than the 96% leader, indicating material probability mass on delays beyond June
- Historical IPO timelines for major aerospace/tech companies typically require 4-8 weeks of SEC review after filing, creating a compressed schedule for a June close
- Elon Musk's public statements on IPO timing have historically shifted and are not always followed by immediate execution

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ipospacex
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ipospacex
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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