# IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-ir-iran
Updated: 2026-06-16T00:20:51.075Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 55% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1.5M

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IR Iran | 55¢ | −16pp | $1.5M | polymarket | /markets/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-ir-iran-polymarket-0xe70fd51f42e61fc309d8e57019a7b76c8dc7bd19b473351d56ff1e125ae0d9d4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 52 |
| 2026-06-03 | 51 |
| 2026-06-09 | 52 |
| 2026-06-16 | 38 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-16 · IR Iran −16pp 54→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's current assessment that Iran will prevail over New Zealand in an upcoming matchup. The 52% level suggests traders view this as a competitive contest with Iran holding a slight edge. Key drivers of this probability include the relative strength and recent form of each team, home-field advantage if applicable, and any roster or injury changes. The resolution will depend on the match outcome itself, which represents the primary catalyst that will settle this uncertainty. Current market depth shows moderate trading activity at this price level, reflecting genuine interest but not overwhelming confidence in either direction.

### Key factors

- The current odds place Iran as a marginal favorite at 52%, indicating traders assess this as nearly even competition rather than a decisive mismatch
- Recent head-to-head records and performance metrics between Iran and New Zealand in the relevant sport determine baseline expectations for the matchup
- Home-field advantage, if applicable, historically influences outcomes and would be priced into probability shifts
- Roster composition, key player availability, and recent form changes can shift probabilities significantly as match date approaches
- The $23,363 in 24-hour volume indicates moderate market liquidity, suggesting the 52% price reflects genuine competitive uncertainty rather than extreme confidence

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-ir-iran
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-ir-iran
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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