# IR Iran vs. New Zealand

> IR Iran leads at 53%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:21:01.185Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-16

## Headline

- Leader: IR Iran at 53%
- Runner-up: Draw (IR Iran vs. New Zealand) at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IR Iran | 53¢ | ±0 | $10 | polymarket | /markets/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-ir-iran-polymarket-0xe70fd51f42e61fc309d8e57019a7b76c8dc7bd19b473351d56ff1e125ae0d9d4 |
| Draw (IR Iran vs. New Zealand) | 28¢ | −1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-draw-ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-polymarket-0xcd05a73f2ddf6c07340b4f1c6c853c4754b2f4428045fec1b295c192e399e563 |
| New Zealand | 23¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-new-zealand-polymarket-0x4d32282db59ec449edbc191b4b487b7f8218c07d6f94b0c01e2e7ddf6964c26d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | IR Iran | Draw (IR Iran vs. New Zealand) | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 53 | 23 | 26 |
| 2026-05-01 | 53 | 23 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 53 | 24 | 22 |
| 2026-05-03 | 53 | 23 | 25 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · New Zealand −4pp 26→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · New Zealand +3pp 22→25¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 23% probability reflects market expectations that Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement with the United States before the end of 2026. The assessment factors in the current diplomatic environment and historical precedent for such negotiations. Near-term probability is notably lower (9% for a deal before June), suggesting markets expect any agreement would take several months if pursued. Key drivers include the U.S. administration's stance on Iran policy, Iran's willingness to negotiate, and the geopolitical context. The trajectory of these talks would be most visible through public statements from both governments and any direct diplomatic engagement announced in coming weeks. Market pricing implies skepticism about near-term resolution but acknowledges material possibility of a deal within the broader 2026 timeframe.

### Key factors

- Near-term deal probability (9% by June) is substantially lower than full-year probability (50% by 2027), indicating markets expect extended negotiation timelines if talks occur
- The 16% probability for New Zealand recognizing Palestine appears on the same market but represents a distinct geopolitical question, suggesting complex regional dynamics affecting prediction markets
- Kalshi contract volumes vary significantly by timeframe, with highest volume ($28,074 in 24h) on the June deadline, indicating concentration of near-term uncertainty
- U.S. presidential administration policies on Iran sanctions and diplomatic engagement represent the primary variable affecting deal probability
- Historical Iran nuclear negotiations (JCPOA timeline) lasted months to years, making 2026 achievement contingent on immediate diplomatic initiation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ir-iran-vs-new-zealand
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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