# Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 9 contracts — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-april-30
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.003Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $188K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 68¢ | ±0 | $54K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leader-end-of-2026-mojtaba-khamenei-polymarket-0x25fb28382075f418a944a781a9f8840e2f541152eea0d9798d1cabfa1466adbb |
| June 30 | 10¢ | −1pp | $38K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpil-polymarket-0x6cb3ec9e0fb1c258898f648f8b33422f59ba3e8a71aee551449d7cb147bb8ead |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 3¢ | ±0 | $27K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leader-end-of-2026-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-polymarket-0x0df7e873042bebb09fbe24562069f28670c6b9366cab653fe15e030173cbc18c |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | 10¢ | −1pp | $23K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-polymarket-0x9d3f02264a94bafc676afd7add8b11442e6ec72dabaa69cefef835f0672275c7 |
| No Head of State | 4¢ | ±0 | $16K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leader-end-of-2026-no-head-of-state-polymarket-0x6397f084bcee3390e92b0a4f8d0f1fa23ddabad1668c4a6783f5643564f646d6 |
| December 31 | 36¢ | −3pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpil-polymarket-0xe846dd72f8a654ef137a3e23a88226400b42cc0ca817ab4390a615860e08cafa |
| December 31 | 20¢ | +1pp | $13K | polymarket | /markets/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-december-31-polymarket-0x58998da8fa20593cf07618032acd580344a79279a8bcc3ed128b668d793c3d6f |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | 43¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-decem-polymarket-0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df |
| Reza Pahlavi | 6¢ | −1pp | $845 | polymarket | /markets/iran-leader-end-of-2026-reza-pahlavi-polymarket-0xe6eb21883f57c3047cf7be1d7cff4554fbb82067e374bd07c53242170f57851f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 26 |
| 2026-05-25 | 35 |
| 2026-06-01 | 32 |
| 2026-06-08 | 26 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · June 30 −8pp 19→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? −5pp 21→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? −4pp 59→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · Mojtaba Khamenei −3pp 73→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? −3pp 15→12¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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