# Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-december-31
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:20:28.526Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $617

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | 48¢ | +1pp | $617 | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-decem-polymarket-0xff68b32e6543ae8b44ccb520604b6ea224a1bac071a186fb65f6f40949a758df |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 58 |
| 2026-04-25 | 51 |
| 2026-05-02 | 45 |
| 2026-05-08 | 51 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? +7pp 43→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? +5pp 40→45¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Iran formally agrees to cease uranium enrichment activities by the end of 2026. At 45%, the market reflects significant uncertainty about whether diplomatic negotiations will succeed or whether Iran will maintain its enrichment program. The current assessment is influenced by the state of nuclear talks and Iran's historical compliance patterns. Upward pressure would come from renewed multilateral negotiations or international agreements; downward pressure would result from escalating sanctions or Iran's continued enrichment expansion. The key near-term catalyst is whether the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, which would signal either successful negotiation or military/intelligence intervention, fundamentally shifting expectations for a full agreement by year-end.

### Key factors

- Current Iranian uranium enrichment capacity and recent expansion rates compared to pre-agreement levels
- Status and momentum of ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Iran and international powers as of Q2 2026
- Track record of Iranian compliance with previous nuclear agreements and stated commitments over the past 5 years
- Polymarket contracts pricing US uranium acquisition by May 31 at only 10¢, suggesting low confidence in near-term breakthroughs
- Political changes in Iran or shifts in US foreign policy that could either enable or obstruct agreement negotiations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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