# Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-09T09:05:23.510Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $40K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | 28¢ | −3pp | $40K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-polymarket-0x9d3f02264a94bafc676afd7add8b11442e6ec72dabaa69cefef835f0672275c7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 25 |
| 2026-04-25 | 37 |
| 2026-05-01 | 25 |
| 2026-05-09 | 31 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? +8pp 25→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? −4pp 38→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? −3pp 34→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that Iran will commit to ending uranium enrichment by June 30, 2026. The 26% probability reflects skepticism about near-term diplomatic resolution, given that negotiations have historically stalled on this issue. The low probability is primarily driven by Iran's past reluctance to abandon enrichment capabilities and the absence of major recent diplomatic breakthroughs. Upward pressure would come from direct negotiations resulting in concrete agreements, while downward pressure would follow from continued enrichment acceleration or public statements rejecting limitations. The key catalyst is whether intensive negotiations between Iran and international parties materialize and produce verifiable commitments before the June 30 deadline. Related markets suggest traders assess the likelihood of regime change, permanent peace deals, and uranium seizure as interconnected outcomes that would influence this core enrichment question.

### Key factors

- Iran's current uranium enrichment capacity and recent centrifuge expansion rates versus historical negotiation outcomes
- Active diplomatic channels and scheduled negotiations between Iran and international parties through June 30
- Verification mechanisms and inspection access that would be required to confirm enrichment cessation
- Geopolitical events or regime stability changes that could shift Iranian leadership's negotiating position
- Previous JCPOA compliance patterns and Iran's track record on implementing similar commitments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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