# Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...

> December 31 leads at 36%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.889Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 36%
- Runner-up: July 31 at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $76K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 36¢ | −3pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpil-polymarket-0xe846dd72f8a654ef137a3e23a88226400b42cc0ca817ab4390a615860e08cafa |
| July 31 | 21¢ | +1pp | $25K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpil-polymarket-0xc11f41372087c4d934ae7adb869ff08272b2bcb3e242d4e628330353c130e480 |
| June 30 | 10¢ | −1pp | $37K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpil-polymarket-0x6cb3ec9e0fb1c258898f648f8b33422f59ba3e8a71aee551449d7cb147bb8ead |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | July 31 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 43 | — | 25 |
| 2026-05-25 | 55 | 36 | 32 |
| 2026-06-01 | 40 | 22 | 11 |
| 2026-06-07 | 36 | 20 | 11 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 21 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · June 30 −8pp 19→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · July 31 −6pp 28→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · July 31 −5pp 22→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · July 31 +5pp 18→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · July 31 −3pp 23→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects trader expectations that Iran will formally agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026. Currently priced at 33%, it represents a roughly one-in-three chance of such an agreement within the next seven months. The level reflects both the difficulty of past nuclear negotiations with Iran and the potential for diplomatic reopening. Traders assign significantly lower odds to earlier deadlines (9-12% for May-June resolutions), suggesting skepticism about near-term breakthroughs. The main factors moving this probability are the status of US-Iran relations, whether diplomatic channels remain open, and whether economic incentives align for both parties. Any major geopolitical escalation or shift in US policy toward Iran would substantially affect these odds.

### Key factors

- Current US-Iran diplomatic engagement status and whether formal negotiations on nuclear stockpiles have resumed or are scheduled
- Historical pattern: previous JCPOA negotiations took 18+ months; shorter timelines require either dramatic policy shifts or pre-existing agreement frameworks
- Relative contract pricing shows traders price May-June resolutions at 9-12% versus 33% for December 31, indicating belief that any agreement requires multiple quarters of negotiation
- Economic and sanctions pressure on Iran versus willingness to engage—the tradeoff determines incentive alignment for surrendering rather than retaining enriched uranium
- Third-party verification mechanisms and international oversight requirements—technical feasibility of surrender logistics affects whether negotiations succeed by year-end

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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