# Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 1 contract — refreshed 16 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-may-31
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.363Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $87K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | 12¢ | −4pp | $87K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormu-polymarket-0x83831604f88a889311dc484abc0d327d96f494bba9d41084bf1b84d8a991e97b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | 12 |
| 2026-05-25 | 15 |
| 2026-05-26 | 18 |
| 2026-05-27 | 15 |
| 2026-05-28 | 11 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? −4pp 15→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? +3pp 12→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? +3pp 15→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? −3pp 18→15¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 10% probability reflects the market's assessment that Iran will formally agree to allow unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31—just six days away. The low probability reflects the absence of active negotiations or public statements from Iranian officials signaling such an agreement. Movement in this probability would depend on either a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough or new geopolitical pressure. The main catalyst is any official announcement from Iranian government representatives or a multilateral agreement addressing Hormuz shipping restrictions. Current market positioning suggests participants view an agreement within this timeframe as unlikely without unexpected diplomatic intervention.

### Key factors

- No public negotiations between Iran and international parties regarding Hormuz shipping access are currently reported as of late May 2026
- The six-day resolution window is extremely short, requiring either an existing secret negotiation to surface publicly or a rapid policy reversal from Iranian leadership
- Recent geopolitical tensions or cooperation levels between Iran and Western/regional powers would significantly influence likelihood of such an agreement materializing
- Any statement from Iran's Supreme Leader, Foreign Ministry, or Revolutionary Guard Corps contradicting or supporting unrestricted Hormuz passage would move probability materially
- Trading volume of $81,022 in 24 hours suggests moderate market interest but limited conviction, indicating uncertainty about resolution mechanisms or baseline conditions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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