# Iran coup attempt by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-coup-attempt-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.779Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | 8¢ | +2pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30-polymarket-0x17c9dead8bed402d330e2aa5bcfb4d6f7764d3cc60d6508a03be003f4e88e64b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 14 |
| 2026-04-25 | 14 |
| 2026-05-01 | 16 |
| 2026-05-08 | 10 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Iran coup attempt by June 30? −4pp 16→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Iran coup attempt by June 30? −3pp 12→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 13% probability estimates the likelihood of a significant change in Iranian regime control or leadership by June 30, 2026—roughly two months away. The assessment reflects limited near-term expectations for successful coup activity, though geopolitical tensions and internal instability represent potential upside drivers. Downside pressure comes from the Iranian security apparatus's demonstrated capacity to suppress internal opposition and the absence of coordinated military or civilian movements with credible momentum. The resolution hinges on whether organized opposition forces—whether external actors like exiled groups or internal factions—can execute a sustained challenge to state authority. Key upcoming indicators include reports of military defections, large-scale street protests, or statements from significant power brokers suggesting regime fragility. The relatively short timeframe and modest probability suggest markets view a June 30 transition as possible but unlikely absent a major triggering event.

### Key factors

- Iranian security forces have historically contained domestic unrest; sustained organizational capacity among opposition groups would signal meaningful change risk
- Specific catalysts like coordinated military defection, regional conflict escalation, or major economic shock would be required to materially shift probabilities in such a short window
- Related markets price Reza Pahlavi entry at 4% and permanent US-Iran peace deals at 37%, suggesting investors see regime change as lower probability than diplomatic shifts
- Geographic control markers like Kharg Island occupation (priced at 12%) reflect uncertainty about territorial and institutional stability rather than imminent regime collapse
- The June 30 endpoint is arbitrary and creates inherent ambiguity; events that develop gradually post-deadline would not trigger resolution despite material regime stress

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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