# Iran leader end of 2026

> Mojtaba Khamenei leads at 68%, runner-up 6% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-leader
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.663Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Mojtaba Khamenei at 68%
- Runner-up: Reza Pahlavi at 6%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $113K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 68¢ | ±0 | $54K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leader-end-of-2026-mojtaba-khamenei-polymarket-0x25fb28382075f418a944a781a9f8840e2f541152eea0d9798d1cabfa1466adbb |
| Reza Pahlavi | 6¢ | −1pp | $845 | polymarket | /markets/iran-leader-end-of-2026-reza-pahlavi-polymarket-0xe6eb21883f57c3047cf7be1d7cff4554fbb82067e374bd07c53242170f57851f |
| No Head of State | 4¢ | ±0 | $16K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leader-end-of-2026-no-head-of-state-polymarket-0x6397f084bcee3390e92b0a4f8d0f1fa23ddabad1668c4a6783f5643564f646d6 |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 3¢ | ±0 | $27K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leader-end-of-2026-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-polymarket-0x0df7e873042bebb09fbe24562069f28670c6b9366cab653fe15e030173cbc18c |
| Abbas Araghchi | 3¢ | −1pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leader-end-of-2026-abbas-araghchi-polymarket-0x504088e48d1e39815d24709930eda874ad3b69a1ed2b1cd2e3f480981410f71c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mojtaba Khamenei | Reza Pahlavi | No Head of State |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 5 |
| 2026-05-10 | 66 | — | — |
| 2026-05-12 | 64 | 8 | 4 |
| 2026-05-24 | 70 | 7 | 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | 70 | — | 3 |
| 2026-05-30 | 71 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-01 | 72 | 6 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 70 | — | 4 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · Mojtaba Khamenei −3pp 73→70¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 66% probability indicates markets assess a significant likelihood that Iran's top leadership will change by year-end 2026. The assessment reflects the advanced age of current leaders, succession uncertainties, and potential geopolitical disruptions, though the timeframe remains relatively compressed. Upward pressure comes from health concerns and political instability; downward pressure from the historical resilience of Iran's power structure. The May 31 contract trading at 9 cents suggests markets weight near-term transition as unlikely, with most probability concentrated in later months. Key near-term developments—Iranian elections, health updates on senior officials, and regional escalation scenarios—will shape whether this probability tightens or widens substantially. The December 31 resolution date means almost no time for verification after events occur.

### Key factors

- Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's age (86 as of 2026) and historical succession mechanisms in Iran's governance structure
- Scheduled elections and political transitions in 2026 that could alter effective leadership without formal regime change
- Regional military escalation scenarios (Israel-Iran tensions, U.S. policy shifts) that could disrupt leadership continuity
- Market contract segmentation across May 31, June 30, and year-end suggests low confidence in near-term transition but material probability by December
- The 45-point gap between the leading outcome (66%) and runner-up (10%) indicates significant disagreement on alternative scenarios for end-2026 Iranian leadership

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-leader
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iran-leader
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.