# Iran leadership change by...

> December 31 leads at 31%, runner-up 6% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-leadership-change
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:07.603Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 31%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 6%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $368K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 31¢ | +2pp | $59K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-polymarket-0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607 |
| June 30 | 6¢ | ±0 | $310K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leadership-change-by-june-30-polymarket-0xb196a122933da9aff6cb8b0f3764d0dc5db1859f46c0481c711521eee8524291 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 33 | 12 |
| 2026-05-24 | 30 | 9 |
| 2026-05-25 | 31 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | — | 6 |
| 2026-06-02 | 28 | 5 |
| 2026-06-08 | 30 | 7 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · June 30 +3pp 4→7¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood of Iran experiencing a leadership change by a specified date. The 15% level reflects current market expectations that such a transition is possible but not imminent. Recent contract pricing suggests markets are pricing in elevated geopolitical risk between the US and Iran, with related uncertainties about uranium enrichment, territorial control, and diplomatic resolution. The main drivers are ongoing nuclear negotiations, regional military tensions, and the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations. Key upcoming events include reported timelines for peace deal discussions (May 15 and May 31) and statements on uranium enrichment progress, which would provide concrete signals about whether internal Iranian political pressure might intensify or reduce.

### Key factors

- Related contracts show 38¢ pricing for June 30 peace deal prospects versus 5¢ for May 15, indicating market skepticism about near-term resolution
- Uranium enrichment and Kharg Island control contracts trading at single-digit to low double-digit cents suggest low immediate probability of major escalation
- Peace deal contract volumes exceed $289K daily, indicating active price discovery on US-Iran diplomatic outcomes that would directly affect leadership stability
- The 15% baseline sits between lowest crisis scenarios (5¢ for May 15 peace) and moderate escalation scenarios (38¢ for June 30 peace), suggesting conditional probability on escalation trajectory
- Absence of high-probability near-term leadership change contracts indicates markets do not expect imminent internal Iranian regime collapse from current conditions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-leadership-change
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iran-leadership-change
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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