# Iran military action against ___ by April 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 10 contracts — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-military-action-against-april-30
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.753Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1.2M

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 3¢ | +1pp | $763K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30-polymarket-0x9352c559e9648ab4cab236087b64ca85c5b7123a4c7d9d7d4efde4a39c18056f |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 18¢ | +1pp | $269K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027-polymarket-0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 13¢ | +1pp | $81K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027-polymarket-0xbb4d51e6364066d92eb6f9b8413dd7193de70966736044463b205834805a1f3b |
| June 30 | 31¢ | +16pp | $72K | polymarket | /markets/israel-military-action-against-yemen-by-june-30-polymarket-0x3fe18d2b6303ee3a7e406aab679dbc0b0f7504dc6b477a31c69c6ffb04e9e11c |
| December 31 | 39¢ | ±0 | $58K | polymarket | /markets/us-military-action-against-cuba-by-december-31-polymarket-0x3de0f3d7d7efb40cde68e814d40a0b232832083653c8e78260eb999baa967de0 |
| June 30 | 14¢ | +13pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/israel-military-action-against-damascus-by-june-30-polymarket-0xeb4beaefa070c6ccfef90eb088852246c9e965b2672a83bc6f4c36ae347817f4 |
| 10 | 16¢ | −4pp | $568 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x30a1d62f46f58d036cccd96b0e468ff3165e238cd3bef03441370ad3c1fd1b86 |
| 8 | 29¢ | −1pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda |
| 9 | 27¢ | +1pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x5759fb62768738cda38232974fa399fd8bfbbe6c04d891a2c4cdb71731f8f692 |
| 11 | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-conduct-m-polymarket-0x4fa0dfa81109ade4f993b63f5ea4c9ee5e01ff546b7ddc9708d441ca691eb39a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 26 |
| 2026-05-25 | 19 |
| 2026-06-01 | 18 |
| 2026-06-08 | 21 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-08 · June 30 +16pp 13→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · June 30 +13pp 11→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · 10 −7pp 18→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · June 30 +6pp 12→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · 10 +6pp 11→17¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-military-action-against-april-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iran-military-action-against-april-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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