# Will there be a US-Iran peace deal?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 13 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-peace-deal
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.996Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 30% / Polymarket 46% — 16pp spread
- 24h volume: $435K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 22¢ | −1pp | $313K | polymarket | /markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633 |
| Before July | 10¢ | ±0 | $85K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jul |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | 69¢ | ±0 | $26K | polymarket | /markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027-polymarket-0x182390641d3b1b47cc64274b9da290efd04221c586651ba190880713da6347d9 |
| Before 2027 | 48¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27 |
| Before September | 23¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26sep |
| Before August | 18¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-be-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26aug |
| Grants license | 18¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-a-new-nuclear-reactor-be-approved-by-dec-31-2-kalshi-kxreactor-26dec31 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 22¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-iran-hold-a-presidential-election-before-jan-kalshi-kxelectiran-27jan01 |
| Before 2027 | 5¢ | −2pp | $57 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-before-jan-kalshi-kxiranembassy-27 |
| Before 2028 | 67¢ | −1pp | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-28 |
| Yes | 6¢ | −1pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-score-in-the-economist-intelligence-uni-kalshi-kxirandemocracy-27mar01-t6 |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 74¢ | −1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-29jan20 |
| Before 2029 | 41¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-free-trade-agreement-with-an-kalshi-kxfta-29 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 44 |
| 2026-05-25 | 41 |
| 2026-06-01 | 39 |
| 2026-06-07 | 39 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +10pp 6→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? −5pp 70→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · Before August −5pp 23→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Grants license −5pp 23→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-peace-deal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iran-peace-deal
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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