# Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-play-fifa-world-cup
Updated: 2026-06-05T23:20:12.239Z
Category: sports · Topic: iran
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-02

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | 97¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/will-iran-play-in-the-world-cup-polymarket-0xcc6b2547a182b3d42db7b4c59c9879db11b9632ef0ac87a720770f5d263af9d7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 88 |
| 2026-05-25 | 92 |
| 2026-06-01 | 92 |
| 2026-06-06 | 98 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Will Iran Play in the World Cup? +4pp 92→96¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 90% probability reflects the market's assessment that Iran will qualify for and participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States. Iran has historically qualified for multiple World Cups, including 2018 and 2022, and currently competes in Asian qualifying matches for 2026. The main factors determining this probability are Iran's performance in the remaining AFC (Asian Football Confederation) qualifying matches and their competitive standing within their group. The critical upcoming event is the completion of AFC World Cup qualifying in late 2025, which will definitively determine which Asian nations advance to the tournament. Any major geopolitical disruptions or disqualifications would be exceptional but remain possible regulatory outcomes.

### Key factors

- Iran currently participates in active 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying under AFC regulations with scheduled matches through late 2025
- Iran's historical qualification rate shows participation in 5 of the last 6 World Cups (1998, 2006, 2014, 2018, 2022), indicating consistent competitive capacity in Asian qualifiers
- AFC qualifying format determines the 4-5 Asian spots for 2026; Iran's group standing and remaining fixtures directly impact advancement probability
- Potential disqualification or withdrawal due to geopolitical factors, while uncommon, remains a non-zero risk that could reduce qualification odds
- The final AFC qualifying matches concluding in November 2025 represent the definitive resolution point for this market

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-play-fifa-world-cup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iran-play-fifa-world-cup
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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