# Will Iran Play in the World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 96% across 1 contract — refreshed 36 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-play-world-cup
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:09.023Z
Category: sports · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-02

## Headline

- Probability: 96% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $68K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | 96¢ | +1pp | $68K | polymarket | /markets/will-iran-play-in-the-world-cup-polymarket-0xcc6b2547a182b3d42db7b4c59c9879db11b9632ef0ac87a720770f5d263af9d7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 88 |
| 2026-05-25 | 92 |
| 2026-06-01 | 92 |
| 2026-06-06 | 98 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Will Iran Play in the World Cup? +4pp 92→96¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 95% probability that Iran will qualify for and participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, scheduled for June-July 2026 in the United States. Iran must finish in a qualifying position within their confederation (AFC) during the ongoing World Cup qualification rounds. The high probability reflects Iran's historical participation record—they've qualified for six of the last eight World Cups—and their relatively strong position in the current Asian qualification stage. The main uncertainty centers on Iran's recent performance trends, competition from other strong AFC teams, and the remaining qualifying matches over the next few months. The decisive factor will be the outcomes of remaining AFC qualification fixtures through late 2025 and early 2026, which will determine which teams advance. Iran currently occupies a qualifying position but faces ongoing competition from regional rivals.

### Key factors

- Iran's current standings in AFC World Cup qualifying group relative to qualification positions available
- Historical qualification success rate: Iran qualified in 6 of 8 World Cups since 2002
- Remaining AFC qualification matches schedule and Iran's performance requirements
- Strength of competing teams in Iran's qualifying group and overall AFC confederation
- Any unforeseen disruptions (political sanctions, team issues, or administrative bans affecting eligibility)

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-play-world-cup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iran-play-world-cup
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.