# Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 20 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-removed-from-fifa-world-cup
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:23.063Z
Category: sports · Topic: iran
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 19% / Polymarket 23% — 4pp spread
- 24h volume: $591K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 16¢ | −8pp | $126K | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-france-polymarket-0x9b6fef249040fd17e9c107955b37ac2c3e923509b6b0ff01cc463a331ddeb894 |
| Spain | 15¢ | +17pp | $115K | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-spain-polymarket-0x7976b8dbacf9077eb1453a62bcefd6ab2df199acd28aad276ff0d920d6992892 |
| Netherlands | 3¢ | +7pp | $91K | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-netherlands-polymarket-0x9be56371f6a29d12769b2f196847ee825b9585ebb8bfa042136be031b081eba1 |
| Germany | 5¢ | — | $80K | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-germany-polymarket-0x1595b4818eeb1ea1e0bec5de6f057218e557feee9b405a0e930d290384fa1d16 |
| Portugal | 7¢ | +10pp | $66K | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-portugal-polymarket-0x4f3421fb2daf5cca7430ed8d8132463963081572d75434393a1808fdb8829fe8 |
| Argentina | 9¢ | — | $35K | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-argentina-polymarket-0x0c4cd2055d6ea89354ffddc55d6dbcef9355748112ea952fc925f3db6a5c457f |
| England | 11¢ | +8pp | $34K | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-england-polymarket-0x375409bc5eeeff961e82b479caeccc20f33d15738e5bce1186d628aa3d9dfb1f |
| Brazil | 9¢ | +10pp | $33K | polymarket | /markets/2026-fifa-world-cup-winner-brazil-polymarket-0x30d55d8124ee1e12dabe89201badc45669b81dff69e4ce44d961f32878ec178a |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 40¢ | +2pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/will-neymar-play-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-polymarket-0xb60c044bba6f7958768691345df1e102448a5b7ef16e4a08879bb10483fb4567 |
| Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 94¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-lionel-messi-play-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-polymarket-0x160dbfb768f10eedc79d21400546975778e2d0f1ae7f53777a1edabd5baecf81 |
| France | 71¢ | ±0 | $1K | polymarket | /markets/fifa-world-cup-group-i-winner-france-polymarket-0x4ae4a0aecfc6479374c5a9a355f0f0cba2c0680dff010b48a2c8b380423efd05 |
| Asia | 3¢ | −23pp | $712 | polymarket | /markets/which-continent-will-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-a-polymarket-0x60acf099fa9533670907f84fe43948027d33696e159c9b31e5b71e29070c00bc |
| Yes | 89¢ | −1pp | $148 | kalshi | /markets/iran-to-compete-in-fifa-world-cup-in-2026-yes-kalshi-kxwciran-26 |
| Lamine Yamal | 5¢ | +1pp | $70 | kalshi | /markets/will-lamine-yamal-lead-fifa-world-cup-in-goals-for-kalshi-kxwcgoalleader-26-lyam |
| Japan | 28¢ | +1pp | $68 | polymarket | /markets/fifa-world-cup-group-f-winner-japan-polymarket-0xde6e8331eaaf0b212f688a04f6c4ff5f895ab633a467cb3e9f3da48fce7c6801 |
| IR Iran | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ir-iran-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-semifinals-kalshi-kxwcround-26semi-iri |
| Iran | 8¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fifa-world-cup-group-g-winner-iran-polymarket-0x5bf2c54fb4ca9d63427816cd88ab8f7b5ede5b2b9166c366a940f1a0d6d0a290 |
| IR Iran | 4¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ir-iran-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-final-ir-i-kalshi-kxwcround-26final-iri |
| IR Iran | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ir-iran-qualify-from-world-cup-group-g-ir-ira-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26g-iri |
| IR Iran | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ir-iran-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-round-of-1-kalshi-kxwcround-26ro16-iri |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 44 |
| 2026-04-19 | 41 |
| 2026-04-26 | 29 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Asia +24pp 2→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Asia −23pp 26→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Spain +17pp 16→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · France −12pp 70→58¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · France +12pp 58→70¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-removed-from-fifa-world-cup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iran-removed-from-fifa-world-cup
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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