# Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 19 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-sabotage-undersea-internet-cables-april-30
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:20:52.484Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 13% / Polymarket 20% — 7pp spread
- 24h volume: $1.9M

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | 3¢ | ±0 | $1.2M | polymarket | /markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-may-31-polymarket-0x789c947a9415600d30d56a4aae88d4111996679b0caed166d0c96242fdce92a2 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 6¢ | −1pp | $258K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30-polymarket-0x9352c559e9648ab4cab236087b64ca85c5b7123a4c7d9d7d4efde4a39c18056f |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 30¢ | −2pp | $172K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027-polymarket-0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | 19¢ | −3pp | $61K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-before-2027-polymarket-0xbb4d51e6364066d92eb6f9b8413dd7193de70966736044463b205834805a1f3b |
| December 31 | 11¢ | −2pp | $46K | polymarket | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-polymarket-0x2f224fca80a6a6b3a2a200406473fc8b33da6bcf5af83dc3fe9021a541c0519d |
| June 30 | 3¢ | −1pp | $43K | polymarket | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30-polymarket-0x43272c02b8407ed3f8d5b04fb4cb132d7a59c5df6ecc423afcf66f1c778d1887 |
| Before June | 10¢ | −1pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jun |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | 93¢ | +1pp | $16K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strike-polymarket-0xefc69f5f48827e331957acbcc2339eb3b15e27e32453b8e6f29b5de67474c986 |
| Before July | 19¢ | −6pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jul |
| Before 2027 | 50¢ | −2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | 3¢ | +23pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-june-30-polymarket-0x0c38dd9305e3205557885183f0730270779e7e426b0ec3e7743f23963b6d6e4a |
| Stephen Miran | 17¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-dissent-at-the-june-2026-fomc-meeting-ste-kalshi-kxfeddissent-26jun-step |
| Reza Pahlavi | 4¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-visit-iran-before-jul-1-2026-rez-kalshi-kxvisitiran-26jul01-rpah |
| Reza Pahlavi | 8¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-the-head-of-state-or-governme-kalshi-kxpahlavihead-27jan-rpah |
| December 31 | 8¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by-dece-polymarket-0x3285179b99df57b0390e480f8e69d340e5fa38496b263225df90ef389e2958f4 |
| Any U.S. Senator | 5¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-us-senator-visit-iran-before-jul-1-2026-a-kalshi-kxvisitiran-26jul01-asen |
| JD Vance | 3¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-vance-visit-iran-before-jul-1-2026-jd-vanc-kalshi-kxvisitiran-26jul01-jvan |
| Before 2027 | 7¢ | −5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-before-jan-kalshi-kxiranembassy-27 |
| Before 2027 | 11¢ | +1pp | $720 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-recognize-reza-pahlavi-as-t-kalshi-kxrecogpersoniran-26 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 20 |
| 2026-04-19 | 27 |
| 2026-04-26 | 18 |
| 2026-05-03 | 13 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? +23pp 4→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Stephen Miran −18pp 32→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · December 31 −17pp 30→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · December 31 +16pp 14→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? +14pp 3→17¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 20% chance that Iran will sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30, 2026. The probability reflects concern about escalating regional tensions, particularly given the related high-volume contracts on regime stability and potential U.S. military action, which are trading at very low prices (3-30¢). Cable sabotage would likely occur as a response to perceived threats or as part of broader conflict escalation. The current level suggests markets view direct Iranian action against infrastructure as unlikely in the near term, though geopolitical triggers—including developments in U.S.-Iran relations, regional military movements, or proxy activities—could shift this assessment significantly. The resolution deadline of April 30, 2026 means remaining uncertainty will collapse once the date passes or verified sabotage occurs.

### Key factors

- Historical precedent: Iran or Iranian proxies have damaged submarine cables before (2022 incidents in Red Sea); current price reflects whether such actions resume
- Correlation with regime-change contracts: The 3¢ price on Iranian regime fall by May 31 suggests markets assign very low probability to imminent systemic collapse that might trigger desperate infrastructure attacks
- Escalation pathway: The 30¢ contract on U.S. invasion before 2027 represents the most concrete near-term trigger that could precipitate Iranian retaliation against critical infrastructure
- Technical feasibility: Iran possesses known maritime capabilities and has demonstrated ability to locate and target underwater infrastructure; the question is political decision-making rather than capability
- Seasonal/tactical timing: April 2026 falls within a specific window; markets are pricing the risk of sabotage during this defined period rather than assessing general vulnerability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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