# Will there be a war with Iran?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 6 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-war
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.417Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-01

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $63K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reza Pahlavi | 6¢ | ±0 | $44K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-the-head-of-state-or-governme-kalshi-kxpahlavihead-27jan-rpah |
| Yes | 93¢ | −1pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/iran-to-compete-in-fifa-world-cup-in-2026-yes-kalshi-kxwciran-26 |
| Yes | 12¢ | −1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-visit-iran-before-jan-1-2027-yes-kalshi-kxpahlavivisita-27jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 22¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-iran-hold-a-presidential-election-before-jan-kalshi-kxelectiran-27jan01 |
| Yes | 6¢ | −1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-score-in-the-economist-intelligence-uni-kalshi-kxirandemocracy-27mar01-t6 |
| Before 2027 | 5¢ | ±0 | $57 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-before-jan-kalshi-kxiranembassy-27 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 25 |
| 2026-05-25 | 23 |
| 2026-06-01 | 27 |
| 2026-06-08 | 41 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +10pp 6→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Yes +5pp 87→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +4pp 16→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Yes +3pp 92→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +3pp 20→23¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-war
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=iran-war
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.