# Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 8 contracts — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.809Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1.0M

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3¢ | −1pp | $572K | polymarket | /markets/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-ju-polymarket-0x6897736d782ce70f47126dfcec6669073f563d6e757e60bc61c0367370d6f73e |
| June 30 | 6¢ | ±0 | $316K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leadership-change-by-june-30-polymarket-0xb196a122933da9aff6cb8b0f3764d0dc5db1859f46c0481c711521eee8524291 |
| December 31 | 31¢ | +2pp | $59K | polymarket | /markets/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-polymarket-0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607 |
| June 30 | 10¢ | −1pp | $37K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpil-polymarket-0x6cb3ec9e0fb1c258898f648f8b33422f59ba3e8a71aee551449d7cb147bb8ead |
| December 31 | 21¢ | +1pp | $32K | polymarket | /markets/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-december-31-polymarket-0x58998da8fa20593cf07618032acd580344a79279a8bcc3ed128b668d793c3d6f |
| December 31 | 36¢ | −3pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpil-polymarket-0xe846dd72f8a654ef137a3e23a88226400b42cc0ca817ab4390a615860e08cafa |
| December 31 | 6¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by-dece-polymarket-0x3285179b99df57b0390e480f8e69d340e5fa38496b263225df90ef389e2958f4 |
| December 31 | 11¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-polymarket-0x2f224fca80a6a6b3a2a200406473fc8b33da6bcf5af83dc3fe9021a541c0519d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 23 |
| 2026-05-25 | 27 |
| 2026-06-01 | 14 |
| 2026-06-08 | 14 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · June 30 −8pp 19→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · June 30 +3pp 4→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · December 31 −3pp 43→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · December 31 −3pp 39→36¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 18% probability reflects market expectations that the Iran-Israel-US conflict will be resolved by end-2026, with most resolution mechanisms concentrated in June. The relatively low percentage suggests markets view continued tension as more likely than diplomatic breakthrough or military conclusion within this timeframe. The probability is driven by two competing dynamics: near-term catalysts like potential leadership changes or uranium negotiations (reflected in the high-volume June contracts at 5-17%) versus the difficulty of achieving substantive de-escalation given current geopolitical positions. The June 30 deadline creates a natural pivot point—expiration of these near-term contracts will reveal whether any major developments occurred or whether the conflict trajectory extends beyond 2026.

### Key factors

- Three separate June 30 contracts (Kharg Island control, Iranian leadership change, uranium surrender) trade at 5-17%, suggesting June is viewed as a critical decision point with only modest probability of resolution
- December contracts trade higher (uranium at 21%, leadership change at 28%), indicating markets assign greater likelihood to resolution over longer timeframes but still below 50%
- The disparity between June and December contracts suggests markets expect either continuation of current tensions through mid-year or slow-moving negotiations rather than rapid escalation or breakthrough
- High trading volume ($67-147K daily across top contracts) indicates genuine uncertainty rather than consensus, with significant capital backing multiple resolution scenarios
- Uranium enrichment remains a central negotiation point, with December uranium surrender at 21% versus June at 17%, potentially reflecting extended diplomacy assumptions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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