# Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.4M bpd

> At least 1.6M bpd leads at 87%, runner-up 71% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/irancrude
Updated: 2026-06-19T09:20:18.433Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-13

## Headline

- Leader: At least 1.6M bpd at 87%
- Runner-up: At least 1.8M bpd at 71%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1.6M bpd | 87¢ | +33pp | $270 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t1.6 |
| At least 1.8M bpd | 71¢ | +15pp | $174 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t1.8 |
| At least 2.0M bpd | 52¢ | −10pp | $372 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t2.0 |
| At least 2.2M bpd | 43¢ | −8pp | $56 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t2.2 |
| At least 2.8M bpd | 15¢ | −16pp | $541 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t2.8 |
| At least 2.6M bpd | 14¢ | −5pp | $288 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t2.6 |
| At least 3.0M bpd | 11¢ | −15pp | $620 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t3.0 |
| At least 3.6M bpd | 9¢ | −5pp | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t3.6 |
| At least 3.4M bpd | 8¢ | −9pp | $437 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t3.4 |
| At least 3.2M bpd | 8¢ | −8pp | $166 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t3.2 |
| At least 2.4M bpd | 3¢ | −9pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-irans-average-daily-crude-oil-production-for-kalshi-kxirancrude-26jul13-t2.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 1.6M bpd | At least 1.8M bpd | At least 2.0M bpd |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 27 | 28 | 22 |
| 2026-06-18 | 60 | 43 | 39 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 58 | 29 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · At least 1.6M bpd +33pp 27→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · At least 2.0M bpd +17pp 22→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · At least 2.8M bpd −16pp 26→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · At least 3.0M bpd −15pp 18→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · At least 1.8M bpd +15pp 28→43¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects market expectations that Iran will average at least 2.4 million barrels per day of crude oil production during June 2026, currently priced at 51% probability. Iran's crude output has been constrained by decades of sanctions, though recent diplomatic developments and sanctions relief have allowed production to fluctuate significantly. The current pricing suggests roughly even odds, with traders weighing Iran's capacity to sustain output above this threshold against risks from renewed sanctions pressure, technical maintenance, or geopolitical escalation. The June 2026 average will be finalized when official production data is reported by international agencies like the IEA or OPEC in early July 2026. Key uncertainty centers on whether Iran can maintain production momentum in the second half of the year, as contract prices for higher thresholds (3.8M bpd at 16%, 3.0M bpd at 27%) drop sharply, indicating markets assign significantly lower probability to sustained higher production levels.

### Key factors

- Iran's actual June 2026 crude production will be measured against IEA, OPEC, or similar official data releases in July 2026, establishing the factual basis for contract settlement
- The 2.4M bpd threshold sits between the current leader (1.6M bpd at 51%) and mid-range levels (2.6M bpd at 43%), indicating market uncertainty about whether Iran sustains recent production gains or faces headwinds
- Technical capacity at Iranian refineries and export infrastructure, combined with international sanctions regime status in mid-2026, will directly constrain maximum sustainable output
- The steep probability drop across production thresholds (from 51% at 1.6M to 16% at 3.8M) suggests traders view sustained production above 2.6M bpd as increasingly unlikely
- Geopolitical events between now and June—including sanctions policy changes, regional conflict escalation, or diplomatic breakthroughs—represent the primary variable that could shift production trajectories

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/irancrude
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=irancrude
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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